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11

Mar 2026

鲍勃·萨维奇表示，在伊朗紧张局势升温之际，新兴市场债务遭广泛抛售，推动对美国国债和德国国债的需求上升

伊朗冲突触发避险：BNY称新兴市场主权债遭今年最强同步抛售，固定收益转净卖出。资金回流美国国债、德国国债等G10核心资产，减仓仍扩大。

11

Mar 2026

荷兰经济增长强势迈入2026年，在GDP与劳动力市场表现亮眼带动下上行，但冲突风险仍存

荷兰GDP与就业稳健，迈向2026仍看增长；但中东战事推升能源与航运风险。运价翻倍、TTF涨逾30%，VAEX高企，投资者宜用put与价差对冲。

11

Mar 2026

英镑兑美元升至1.3450，中东局势缓和憧憬与油价回落带来英国通胀缓解助力

英镑/美元反弹至1.3450，中东缓和预期与IEA或史上最大释储压低油价，减轻英国通胀风险；但红海与霍尔木兹变数仍在，波动或放大。

11

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行预计欧元兑美元将维持波动，因油价与食品价格上涨推升通胀忧虑并带动美元需求

油价、食品通胀升温点燃避险情绪，Rabobank料欧元/美元至2026年仍高波动区间震荡；下周G10央行会议恐再放大波幅，若霍尔木兹受阻，或下探1.14。

11

Mar 2026

美国经季节调整的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）升至333.51，2月前值为332.79

核心CPI 2月升至333.51、月增0.72，通胀降温不如预期。美联储或更久维持高利率，7月前降息概率下滑；科技成长股承压，VIX飙逾10%，对冲需求升温。

11

Mar 2026

美国2月份核心消费者价格指数（CPI）环比符合预期，按整体来看如期上升0.2%

美国2月核心CPI月增0.2%符预期，通胀“金发姑娘”降温市场紧张：VIX或回落14下。美联储继续观望，降息押注推至2026年中，期权策略偏卖波动、谨慎看多。

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