Live Updates

12

Mar 2026

1月，美国商品贸易逆差收窄至818亿美元，较此前的993亿美元有所改善

美国1月商品贸易逆差从-993亿缩至-818亿，缩减175亿，美元供给或降并获支撑；就业强、通胀高压低降息预期，可用期权布局强美元与工业板块。

12

Mar 2026

美国续领失业救济人数符合预期，为185万人；截至2月下旬的最新数据平淡无惊喜

美国续领失业金人数2月27日持平185万，但3月初升至198万超预期，凸显就业转弱；降息预期升温、VIX走高，期权与国债期货或成对冲机会。

12

Mar 2026

美国建筑许可从增长4.3%转为下滑5.4%，显示先前增长势头急转直下

美国1月建筑许可环比从+4.3%急转至-5.4%：住房与建筑动能降温的领先警讯。叠加就业趋缓，市场押注美联储按兵不动，二季度加息概率跌破30%。

12

Mar 2026

美国1月建筑许可不及预期，按月报137.6万，低于预期的141万

美国1月建筑许可137.6万低于预期141万，房市受高利率拖累。Fed陷两难，市场押注转鸽、收益率回落；建商股承压，VIX看涨期权可对冲波动。

12

Mar 2026

美国四周初请失业金人数平均值达21.2万，低于3月初预测的21.5万

失业救济与CPI再释“更强经济+更黏通胀”信号：美联储或更高更久、延后降息。投资者可布局SOFR看跌、SPY看跌价差与VIX看涨，防回调与震荡。

12

Mar 2026

美国初请失业金人数报21.3万，低于3月6日市场预期的21.5万

初请失业金仅21.3万低预期，劳动力仍紧推升“高利率更久”。核心通胀顽固、VIX走高，夏季降息押注受挫；关注议息与PCE，慎久期长仓位。

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