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今日分析

6

Jul 2026

布伦特原油徘徊于数月低位附近，OPEC+上调产量配额

油价警报：布伦特徘徊72美元、逼近阶段低位；OPEC+8月再增产18.8万桶/日，叠加波斯湾出口修复，现货供给预期走强，需求承压。

3

Jul 2026

日元维持涨势，干预风险犹存

美元兑日元自162.84高位回撤至161附近震荡，弱非农压低美联储加息预期。日本官员警示过度波动拟干预，叠加流动性偏薄，短线波动或放大。

3

Jul 2026

美国非农就业数据疲软提振金价，黄金延续涨势

非农不及预期点燃黄金行情：现货金升至4179.94美元、周涨料2.3%，美元走弱与油价回落推升；市场下调美联储9月加息概率至54%，央行购金提供中长期支撑。

2

Jul 2026

标普500指数下挫，芯片股抛售考验AI行情

AI估值疑虑重燃，半导体板块暴跌拖累美股：标普500回落至7483点、纳指承压；Meta逆势大涨对冲。市场聚焦6月就业数据，押注美联储利率路径。

2

Jul 2026

美元指数（USDX）在美国就业报告公布前维持在101.4附近

美元指数101.4附近企稳，静待6月非农定向。私营招聘转弱但9月加息预期仍超60%。油价回落缓释通胀，储备机构渐进去美元化。

1

Jul 2026

美国关税报道及美联储降息预期施压金属市场，铜价下跌

铜价回吐涨幅回落至6.10美元附近，静待美国商务部更新精炼铜关税审查；强劲经济数据推升美联储偏鹰预期施压。关税变量或重塑库存流向、供给格局与CME-LME价差。

1

Jul 2026

随着市场对美联储加息押注升温，金价跌破4,000美元

金价失守4,000美元关口，鹰派加息预期升温成主因；美伊和解降温推高通胀担忧，FedWatch定价9月加息概率67%，关注ADP与非农催化。

30

Jun 2026

油价持稳于每桶70.39美元附近，市场预期多哈会谈有望抑制原油价格走势

油价“风险溢价”正加速退潮：WTI回落至70美元附近、较5月末累计跌约19%，霍尔木兹通行改善与多哈接触预期压制反弹，聚焦70.83阻力、70.08支撑。

30

Jun 2026

美元兑日元飙升，日元跌至1986年以来最低水平

美元兑日元逼近162.40刷新近40年高位，日元跌至1986年来低点引爆干预警戒。美日利差与美联储鹰派定价支撑美元，关键看162.07支撑及美就业数据催化波动。

29

Jun 2026

英镑兑美元维持在1.3222附近，交易员关注伯纳姆讲话

英镑兑美元守在1.3222附近小幅反弹，仍处七个月低位并或录最大月跌。政局不确定与美元走强施压，87亿美元净空头聚焦1.3228阻力、1.3209支撑。

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