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12

Mar 2026

美联储预期重新定价与油价走高令日元持续走弱，美元/日元逼近此前“汇率审查”水平

USD/JPY连涨至159.18，重返日本1月“汇率检查”区间，干预风险再起；利差与美债收益率挺美元，中东冲突推高日本能源进口成本；周五聚焦美国PCE、GDP、耐用品与密歇根情绪数据。

12

Mar 2026

NBC分析师称，加拿大1月贸易逆差升至五个月新高，受汽车业扰动及能源支撑影响

加拿大1月贸易逆差创五个月新高，汽车业短暂干扰拖累出口；对美顺差收窄靠天然气反弹支撑。央行或淡化波动，半导体短缺仍压供应链，利率春季料稳。

12

Mar 2026

汇丰优先稳健债券收益，持续以债券为核心配置，并在当前市况下谨慎选择久期

降息周期近尾声，汇丰主打债券收息：偏好英镑、欧元中长久期，英澳国债胜美债；投资级与优质新兴债更吸引，高收益利差偏窄需谨慎。

12

Mar 2026

在美国四周国库券拍卖中，收益率持平，维持在3.64%

4周美债T-bill最高利率续守3.64%，短端利率预期被锚定；就业温和、VIX约14助推卖波动策略。ECB偏鸽扩大利差，美元或续强。

12

Mar 2026

美元/加元走高，美元走强之际，加元因美伊冲突担忧而走软

美伊冲突推升美元避险需求，USD/CAD回到1.3621附近；油价高企本应利好加元却遭压。DXY逼近高位，降息预期降温，美加数据成焦点。

12

Mar 2026

道明证券称：霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势及伊朗相关情景推升油价波动，停火可能性仍属有限

霍尔木兹风险升温，预测市场仅押2026年4月停火40%。布油底部或抬至70–75美元，久拖恐破150。宜用远期期权、通胀互换与利率期货对冲衝击。

12

Mar 2026

澳元兑美元下跌，风险忧虑支撑美元，尽管市场仍预期澳洲联储将持续收紧政策措施

澳元/美元从0.7185高位急挫至0.7095，因中东局势推升避险美元与油价、抬高美债收益率；但RBA或3月加息，料限制跌幅。

12

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行的余杰夫表示，巴西雷亚尔走强在大宗商品与高利率支撑下，增强拉美抵御全球冲击能力

巴西与雷亚尔靠大宗商品溢价、双位数实际利率撑住拉美行情；但油价趋稳削弱支撑，降息不确定令波动偏高。衍生品交易者宜提早对冲、布局美元/BRL看涨期权。

12

Mar 2026

德意志银行预计欧洲央行将在中东局势不确定性与能源价格上涨背景下维持政策不变

德银料欧央行3月按兵不动，强调通胀上行与不确定性升温；基准油80气50无需再收紧，若油120气75，通胀失锚风险上升，后续看数据。

12

Mar 2026

美国能源信息署（EIA）报告：美国天然气库存减少38B，降幅优于预期的42B

EIA：天然气库存仅降38Bcf，少于预期42Bcf，供给更宽松。产量105Bcf/日叠加暖冬，库存高于五年均值逾30%，LNG外需或弱，价压偏空，考虑买入4/5月看跌期权。

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