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13

Mar 2026

渣打经济学家称离岸人民币稳定性延续，近期全球化指数整体持平

渣打：CNH稳、RGI趋平，贸易休战降波动；点心债与结算需求托底。《十五五》助推，SWIFT人民币占比创新高；低隐波下卖USD/CNH虚值看跌成收息亮点。

13

Mar 2026

自冲突爆发以来，余伟文（Geoff Yu）指出，随着对冲头寸重置且中国股市保持韧性，人民币需求趋强

冲突后人民币需求意外升温，非靠对冲解除；对冲仍低一年均值30%，回补空间大。官方控波动、资金回流债股支撑汇率；卖波动与低成本买CNY看涨成焦点。

13

Mar 2026

2月，新西兰BusinessNZ制造业采购经理指数（PMI）从前值55.2小幅回落至55

纽西兰2月制造业PMI回落至55，扩张仍在但降温加深；高利率或压活动，削弱RBNZ再加息理由。通胀仍4.1%难缠，中国放缓添逆风，纽元偏弱、波动率或重估。

13

Mar 2026

汇丰称亚洲具备多元化配置吸引力，创新、收入增长、内需扩大及科技政策支持成主要动力

想减持美股？汇丰看好亚洲分散配置：AI、半导体与电商占位，政策与内需撑增长、估值吸引；重点看好中港新日韩，并偏好亚洲金融债、中资美元债、印度卢比债。

13

Mar 2026

台湾货币受惠于出口激增，电子与AI领军；尽管冲突风险升温，资金流入仍增加

台湾2月出口年增20.6%不及预期，却连13个月双位数增长；电子与先进制程半导体续强，赴美出口占比创36年新高；中东冲突与航运油价成隐忧。

13

Mar 2026

华侨银行分析师称，油价走低、美元走弱与人民币走强在地缘政治背景下支撑令吉部分反弹

油价回落、美元走软助令吉反弹，但USD/MYR下一步看中东火药味。若冲突升级推高油价风险溢价，令吉或转弱；关键支撑3.9150，阻力3.9760。

13

Mar 2026

华侨银行策略师观察到，受油价与伊朗风险压制情绪影响，美元/离岸人民币在低位附近盘整，动能减弱

油价高企叠加伊朗风险，USD/CNH近低位盘整、动能转弱。中间价偏强托底，但美元与风险情绪主导。波动率升至5.5%，可卖波收息，严控突发行情风险。

13

Mar 2026

中东冲突升级推高油价，避险需求带动美元走强，澳元/美元跌破0.7100

中东战火推升避险需求，美元走强压制AUD/USD回落至0.7070。油价飙升、RBA通胀预期升温，但美联储降息更难。策略：卖出看涨、买入看跌对冲。

13

Mar 2026

数据显示，阿根廷2月月度CPI升至2.9%，高于预期的2.7%

阿根廷2月CPI月增2.9%超预期，通胀黏性令BCRA难降45%利率。比索官方/蓝美元价差扩至1250/1800，贬值压力累积；期权对冲升温，Merval与ARGT警惕回调。

13

Mar 2026

尽管地缘政治局势紧张，瑞士法郎在迟盘收市时仍对欧元和美元走弱

中东紧张推升油气价，通胀忧虑升温，瑞郎回软：USD/CHF反弹至0.7850、EUR/CHF回升0.9040。技术位盯0.7878/0.7668；SNB干预风险升温。

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