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Live Updates

17

Mar 2026

特朗普表示，大多数北约盟国将避开对伊朗采取行动，并称美国既不想也不需要他们的协助

特朗普称北约及日澳韩不参战伊朗行动，地缘风险升温。未来数周VIX或冲破30，油金偏强、美股或回调；建议用VIX、原油、黄金与指数期权对冲，外汇偏日元瑞郎。

17

Mar 2026

在美国52周国库券拍卖中，收益率升至3.485%，高于此前的3.345%

52周美债拍卖利率冲上3.485%创近高，市场押注美联储“更高更久”。降息或推迟、加息概率飙升，纳指承压、VIX走高，美元指数突破105.50续强。

17

Mar 2026

新西兰GDT价格指数大幅下滑，从此前的5.7%降至0.1%

GDT指数仅升0.1%远低前值5.7%，乳价动能急冻。纽元支撑削弱，NZD/USD或承压；中国全脂奶粉进口跌4%添忧。策略转防守：布局纽元与乳业股看跌。

17

Mar 2026

在欧洲央行和英伦银行即将作出政策决定之前，欧元/英镑维持在0.8640附近，变化不大

欧镑0.8640横盘“蓄势”，周四ECB与BoE决议+英国失业率(料5.3%)成引爆点；隐波偏低或便宜，留意鹰派措辞，期权可先布局波动。

17

Mar 2026

早前分析指出，当标普500指数在约6746点附近交易时，波浪形态偏空，目标指向6500点或更低

标普500自6,746跌至6,600，偏空艾略特波浪应验；7,011高点后或走复杂修正，C浪未完。守不住6,575恐下探6,494，通胀顽固、降息落空推升VIX，期权偏空布局。

17

Mar 2026

丰业银行认为，尽管德国ZEW数据疲弱，收益率利差与情绪改善仍将推动欧元/美元温和走高

欧元兑美元周二续升：情绪压过疲弱德国ZEW。市场紧盯美2年收益率或下行、利差收窄，期权仍偏防欧元走弱，反弹更像回补地缘跌幅。

17

Mar 2026

接近1.3350，英镑/美元维持看涨，交易员在美联储与英伦银行决议前回避美元

英镑/美元逼近1.3350连涨，市场屏息美联储与英央行决议；中东战事推高油价拖延降息。技术面守1.3300上方，阻力1.3360/1.3400，支撑1.3299。

17

Mar 2026

道明证券预计澳元走强：贸易利好与养老基金对冲需求抵消地缘政治风险，澳洲央行投票分歧后

澳元曾靠RBA紧缩与LNG利多领跑G10，如今转入数据依赖暂停、贸易条件降温，0.69变阻力。可用AUD/USD看跌价差瞄0.66，并继续做空AUD/CAD。

17

Mar 2026

英英（INGING）策略师Ewa Manthey表示，Alba和Qatalum减产收紧海湾地区铝供应，影响区域产量

海湾铝供应警报拉响：Alba减产19%、Qatalum仅60%负荷，氧化铝库存仅3–4周。若霍尔木兹受阻延续，LME铝价或冲破4000美元/吨。交易者可布局期货或看涨期权。

17

Mar 2026

德国商业银行卡斯滕·弗里奇表示，供应中断、储备变化与需求转移或将随着时间推移重塑原油供需平衡

霍尔木兹封锁重演70年代油危机？IEA称史上最大缺口：海湾日产降逾800万桶，凝析油与NGL再少200万；OECD战储仅能撑约三个月。

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