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Live Updates

19

Mar 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad表示，美元/加元在1.3735附近徘徊；若能源价格维持高位，加拿大央行暗示可能加息

USD/CAD 守 1.3735，逼近 200 日均线 1.3802 阻力。BoC 连三次按兵不动但撤回指引，留加息伏笔；BBH 看好加元，能源与贸易条件支撑。

19

Mar 2026

欧元区第四季度劳工成本指数上升3.3%，显示全区雇员薪酬成本走高

欧元区4Q劳工成本升3.3%仍偏高，叠加核心通胀2.9%，薪资推高通胀难降；ECB或更鹰派、降息或延后：做空EURIBOR期货，买EUR/USD看涨，对冲EURO STOXX 50看跌。

19

Mar 2026

道明证券经济学家称FOMC按兵不动；鲍威尔淡化SEP；对“夏末”保持耐心的期限或将到期

油价与关税传导成关键变量：TD Securities警告，美联储不变利率但耐心或夏末耗尽；若通胀回落，2026年9月起或三次各降25bp，市场波动恐放大。

19

Mar 2026

西班牙五年期国债拍卖收益率升至2.934%，高于此前的2.577%

西班牙5年国债拍卖收益率飙至2.934%（前次2.577%），警示欧元区利率或再走高、ECB难转鸽。债价承压，关注做空Bund/支付互换；欧元或受益，可再看多EUR/USD。

19

Mar 2026

西班牙10年期国债（Obligaciones）拍卖收益率从此前的3.167%上升至最新的3.476%

西班牙10年国债拍卖收益率飙至3.476%，较上次升30.9基点；欧元区核心通胀回升动摇降息预期，利差扩至105基点，主权债或迎更大波动与交易机会。

19

Mar 2026

瑞士央行维持利率在0%不变，符合预期；投资者关注马丁·施莱格尔的政策指引

瑞士央行利率维持0%不变，瑞郎走弱；但2026通胀预测上调至0.5%，并警惕瑞郎过强与地缘风险。隐波或偏低，交易者可用USD/CHF跨式押波动。

19

Mar 2026

瑞典央行将利率维持在1.75%不变，符合市场预期

瑞典央行维持利率1.75%符预期，克朗短波动降至低位。可卖跨式赚时间价值，或趁长约变便宜布局克朗看涨，紧盯ECB/美联储利差驱动。

19

Mar 2026

符合预期：瑞士央行（SNB）维持利率在0%不变

瑞士央行利率维持0%稳如预期，市场短期或更平静、瑞郎隐波偏弱。0%巩固融资货币地位，套利交易续行，利差压瑞郎。警惕ECB意外降息触发干预风险。

19

Mar 2026

Pesole预计全球央行信号分歧将促使欧洲央行保持谨慎，在油价敏感因素下避免提供前瞻指引

G10央行讯号分裂，欧央行或因油价与通胀阴影更趋谨慎，利率鹰派预期恐落空。关注短端重定价机会，欧元兑美元或温和回落至1.14。

19

Mar 2026

在美联储鹰派立场下，金价跌至2月以来最低，企稳于4,700美元左右

黄金跌破关键支撑逼近4,700美元，美元走强与美联储鹰派、PPI走高打压。波斯湾冲突推升油价与波动，期权对冲与跨式策略受关注。

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