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Live Updates

19

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行称，美联储预计2026年通胀率为2.7%，利率预测维持不变，释放通胀压力属暂时性信号

FOMC上调2026年PCE与核心PCE至2.7%，却仍暗示仅降息一次；中性利率升至3.1%、7委员料零降息。市场仅45%押注年底前降息，美元偏强。

19

Mar 2026

1月美国批发库存下跌0.5%，远逊预期的增长0.2%

美国1月批发库存意外跌0.5%（预期+0.2%），释放“需求强或企业去库存”信号。或推升补库存与通胀，降息预期降温；关注波动、期权布局与板块对冲。

19

Mar 2026

美国1月新屋销售不及预期，月率报58.7万户，低于预期的72万户

美国1月新屋销售仅58.7万套远逊预期72万套，房市需求急冻。利率回落难救薪资降温，建商盈利恐遭下修；警惕波动升温，可考虑XHB偏空期权布局。

19

Mar 2026

数据显示，美国1月新屋销售月率录得58.7万户，高于市场预期的72万户

美国1月新屋销售暴跌至58.7万套，远低于预期72万，释放美联储紧缩见效信号；降息押注升温，利多长债与科技、或压美元，却利空房企板块。

19

Mar 2026

卡塔尔能源公司总裁证实设施受损，17%液化天然气出口将停摆三至五年，或加剧不可抗力风险

突发！卡塔尔约17% LNG产能停摆、维修或需3-5年，恐触发不可抗力并推高现货依赖。TTF暴涨、波动飙升，跨区价差与远期、多头期权机会浮现。

19

Mar 2026

英国央行维持利率不变后，日元全面走强推动英镑/日元走低，尽管英镑整体仍具韧性

英镑/日元因日银决议后日元转强而下跌至211关口。英日央行皆按兵不动却偏鹰，油价与中东推升加息预期，后市波动或放大，期权布局成焦点。

19

Mar 2026

丰业银行称：联储与加拿大央行议息后，收益率利差偏向美元，加元落后于G10货币同侪

加元周四跑输G10：美加议息后收益率利差更利美元，丰业上调USD/CAD公允1.3498。技术偏多，RSI走强；区间1.3700-1.3750，突破1.3750看1.3802。

19

Mar 2026

道明证券Daniel Ghali警告：中东局势紧张抑制需求、CTA抛售，黄金面临逆风

黄金短线受压：中东冲突相关官方买盘降温、CTA续卖，官方需求风险升温。散户此前推高价位，回撤或加剧；但长期牛市技术趋势线仍在。

19

Mar 2026

美元走强，伊朗战争引发能源冲击与美联储鹰派立场挤压风险资产，全球央行收紧政策

伊朗战事升级推高油气，叠加美联储“鹰派按兵不动”削减降息预期，美元走强、风险资产承压。交易上：做多美元与原油，防守股指并短久期债，买VIX捕捉波动。

19

Mar 2026

欧元区欧洲央行主要再融资利率符合预期，维持在2.15%不变，符合市场预期且无意外冲击

欧央行利率维持2.15%无惊喜，隐含波动率或回落：可卖EURO STOXX 50跨式。增长转弱或引降息预期，留意Euribor衍生品；美元偏强，欧元或跌向1.06。

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