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Live Updates

20

Mar 2026

法国巴黎银行称，中欧仍具韧性，欧盟资金、生产力与教育抵消人口下滑影响

人口下滑下中欧仍韧性：欧盟资金续流、生产力跑赢工资撑竞争力。短期资产或稳，可卖PLN/CZK短期期权收息，并买长保护对冲2030风险。

19

Mar 2026

WTI原油交投于97.20美元附近，从100美元回落，委内瑞拉制裁放松且中东风险持续

WTI回落至97美元，供应改善成关键：委内瑞拉解限、伊拉克输油恢复、美国豁免琼斯法案或动储备；但中东冲突升温，风险溢价托底油价。

19

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行Geoff Yu仍看好兰特，称赞GNU改革，但在2026年大宗商品反弹支撑下，套息交易风险仍存

南非改革叠加商品反弹推升兰特与贸易条件，但能源冲击与通胀攀升或令行情逆转。BNY警告：新兴市场债可看，货币敞口须严控、用期权对冲。

19

Mar 2026

英国央行维持利率不变，英镑兑美元升至1.3356，上涨0.76%，通胀忧虑升温

英镑/美元意外上冲：英央行按兵不动仍偏鹰，称中东冲突推高通胀；叠加美数据转弱与政策分化，汇价重返1.33上方，期权策略可布局续升或守1.3250。

19

Mar 2026

北美时段交易中，英镑/美元走高；英国央行维持利率不变，警告通胀压力仍存

英镑/美元因英央行按兵不动且偏鹰，北美时段升至1.3356。美元与油价回落助推；Fed更鸽门槛提高。关注英美PMI与阻力1.35。

19

Mar 2026

美国四周期国库券拍卖收益率回落至3.615%，低于此前的3.64%

4周美债标售利率降至3.615%，释放联储局短期降息讯号；FedWatch押注6月降息概率升至70%。利好美股期权、SOFR与做空波动，美元或续弱。

19

Mar 2026

金价跌至一个月低点：市场预期美联储偏鹰，盖过美国—以色列—伊朗紧张局势下的避险需求

金价连跌七日探逾月低，通胀与油价推高美债收益率、美元走强压制无息黄金；美联储降息预期降温，中东冲突扰动能源，技术面跌破5,000逼近4,600支撑位。

19

Mar 2026

尽管美联储偏鹰派按兵不动，投资者权衡各大央行动向，美元/日元下挫至158.40

美元/日元跌至158.40：美联储鹰派不降息、日央行偏谨慎。霍尔木兹风险推升避险日元，技术转弱。关注158.06支撑、159.29阻力，期权布局看跌或跨式。

19

Mar 2026

欧洲央行维持利率不变后，欧元走强；在鹰派同侪影响下，美元回落

欧元/美元冲高：欧洲央行按兵不动却偏鹰，市场押注7月或再加息；美元在多央行决议后回吐。通胀顽固、增长疲弱，波动交易机会升温。

19

Mar 2026

北欧联合银行（Nordea）Jan von Gerich称：欧洲央行维持利率不变，但若能源推动的通胀扩散，或将收紧政策

油价飙升推高欧元区通胀，ECB利率虽按兵不动却放鹰：若中东冲突拖长，6月或加息25bp、年底收紧60bp；波动对冲与信用风险升温成焦点。

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