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Live Updates

6

Apr 2026

美国ISM服务业PMI 3月报54，低于预期的55

美国3月ISM服务业PMI录得54，低于预期55但仍扩张；增长转弱减轻Fed紧缩压力，利率下行布局更香：债券、VIX对冲、美元走弱机会浮现。

6

Apr 2026

3月，美国ISM服务业新订单指数升至60.6，高于前值58.6

重磅！美国ISM服务业新订单3月升至60.6，需求加速削弱放缓论；通胀回落更难、夏季降息机率走低。波动或放大，美元与美债收益率偏强。

6

Apr 2026

3月美国ISM服务业PMI报54，低于预期的55，显示服务业活动降温

ISM服务业PMI仅54低于预期，经济降温引爆降息押注：Q4降息概率升至65%。国债或转强、股市需防波动；美元跌破50日线，留意做空DXY。

6

Apr 2026

3月，美国ISM服务业新订单指数从前值58.6上升至60.6

抢眼数据：美国3月ISM服务业新订单升至60.6，需求升温经济更“热”。通胀顽固下，美联储降息或推迟、利率更久高位；美元受益走强，波动风险升。

6

Apr 2026

美国ISM服务业就业指数3月降至45.2，前值为51.8，显著萎缩

美国ISM服务业就业指数3月暴跌至45.2，跌破50警戒线，显示裁员与聘请降温。市场押注美联储转鸽、降息概率飙升；可布局美债多头、TLT看涨，并用SPY看跌对冲美元走弱风险。

6

Apr 2026

华侨银行策略师称，缓和希望似乎言之过早，美国与伊朗冲突下布伦特原油风险溢价维持高企

美伊冲突第六周未见降温，布伦特从119回落仍暗藏霍尔木兹“受控限制”与无人机冲击；OVX飙至48。资金转向虚值看涨对冲与跨月价差，押注供应紧与波动延续。

6

Apr 2026

美国ISM服务业就业指数3月降至45.2，前值为51.8

美国ISM服务业就业指数3月骤跌至45.2，服务业转向收缩，敲响经济快速降温警讯。市场押注7月降息升温；利率多头、股指保护性看跌、VIX看涨与做空美元更具吸引力。

6

Apr 2026

华侨银行策略师称，布伦特原油风险溢价仍居高不下，美伊关系缓和希望恐为时过早

美伊冲突六周未降温，布油自119美元回落仍含风险溢价。霍尔木兹“受控限制”成新常态，供应扰动推高波动率；期权可用虚值看涨、保护性看跌或跨式捕捉双向行情。

6

Apr 2026

MUFG的陈洛伊德称：霍尔木兹海峡若受扰，或推高通胀、拖累增长，并令韩元、菲律宾比索和泰铢承压

霍尔木兹海峡若持续中断，亚洲恐陷通胀与经常账户双压、货币分化加剧：看弱KRW/PHP/THB；CNY更稳、MYR或受惠油气出口。策略：空弱币对冲USD，关注多MYR/空THB。

6

Apr 2026

在美伊和平谈判之际，欧元/英镑维持看跌、低于0.8750；均线收敛提供支撑，英镑走强

停火谈判降温中东冲突，风险偏好回升压低EUR/GBP至0.8720。英镑因通胀顽固、降息更慢占优；关注0.8686支撑与0.875阻力，期权双向布局。

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