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Live Updates

8

Apr 2026

纽元/美元徘徊于0.5720附近，受美元避险需求及市场对纽储行预期影响，整体情绪保持中性

纽元/美元徘徊0.5720，美元避险支撑。市场等RBNZ按兵不动后的前瞻指引定调：鹰派或托纽元，耐心则续压。地缘紧张与油价高位加剧波动。

8

Apr 2026

道明证券预计利率维持不变，纽西兰央行在产能未充分运用的经济背景下敦促对供应冲击保持耐心

纽西兰央行料按兵不动、强调对供应冲击保持耐心；经济疲弱下市场押注2026升息逾75基点或偏高。交易员可留意纪要，考虑掉期“收固定”。

8

Apr 2026

随着新西兰联储决议临近，纽元/美元徘徊于0.5720附近；避险美元需求与地缘政治不确定性抑制市场情绪

纽美徘徊0.5720，避险买盘撑美元。RBNZ料按兵不动，关键看前瞻指引：鹰派或提振纽元，鸽派续压。通胀3.8%偏黏，降息预期或推迟。

8

Apr 2026

三菱日联策略师Michael Wan称，美伊紧张局势及对霍尔木兹海峡的威胁令和平前景狭窄且不明朗

美伊紧张升级威胁霍尔木兹海峡，油供中断阴霾笼罩亚洲外汇与风险资产。即便通行改善，回归正常或需3-6个月；策略：买布油看涨、韩元与亚洲股指看跌对冲。

8

Apr 2026

停火谈判陷入僵局、油价重返100美元上方，最后期限逼近令美元/日元徘徊在160附近

美元/日元冲破160后回落，干预阴影再现。日本消费疲弱、加息概率70%，叠加伊朗危机推高油价与美元避险。核心：波动将放大，期权跨式/看跌对冲。

8

Apr 2026

三菱日联分析师Michael Wan表示，美伊紧张局势与霍尔木兹海峡威胁限制和平前景，局势未明

MUFG警告美伊升温、霍尔木兹威胁令原油供应风险加剧；即便通航恢复也需3-6个月补供。亚洲汇股恐承压，油价或跳升；用原油、韩元/卢比及指数期权对冲，把握波动。

8

Apr 2026

美元/日元逼近160，停滞的停火谈判与海峡期限推升油价突破100美元，日元承压

美元兑日元首破160引爆干预猜测，日本加息预期与数据背离叠加中东期限风险。策略：买波动率，跨式/宽跨式；防急跌买日元Put，油价冲击配原油Call。

8

Apr 2026

美国每周API原油库存降至371.9万桶（4月初为1026.3万桶）

API：美国原油库存增幅骤降至371.9万桶，累库放缓提振油价预期；炼厂开工升至91.5%推升需求，关注EIA确认，6月WTI或可用看涨期权/牛市价差布局上行。

8

Apr 2026

大华银行经济学家称3月通胀高于菲律宾央行目标，在比索走弱与成本上升之际吁暂停加息

菲律宾3月通胀意外突破央行目标区间！交通、电力、食品齐涨加上披索偏弱推高进口成本；UOB上调2026通胀至5.5%，料BSP利率续按兵不动至2027年初。

8

Apr 2026

据API数据，美国每周原油库存降至371.9万桶，较4月初的1026.3万桶回落

API原油库存增371.9万桶，较前周1026.3万桶暴增明显降温；若EIA确认放缓，叠加炼厂88.9%与旺季、地缘风险，高波动下看涨期权/价差或成催化。

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