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Live Updates

10

Apr 2026

美国2月PCE物价指数按月升0.4%符合预期，反映通胀动能保持稳健

PCE 2月环比升0.4%符合预期，但通胀仍顽固、就业强劲削弱降息理由。6月降息概率跌破50%，利率或更高更久；VIX回升，CPI/FOMC前期权策略更吸睛。

10

Apr 2026

Savage表示，若燃油带动的压力下核心通胀上升，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）行长Breman可能加息

RBNZ放“鹰”话：核心通胀回升就果断加息，油价与中东风险推高压力。纽元、2年债收益率与期权波动策略成焦点，5月议息或引爆行情。

10

Apr 2026

3月墨西哥年度通胀率升至4.59%，略低于4.61%的预期，小幅超出分析师预料

墨西哥3月通胀4.59%低于预期，降温趋势更明朗，Banxico 5月再降息概率升。利差收窄或拖累比索；期权押注USD/MXN走强，TIIE料加码降息。

10

Apr 2026

3月墨西哥整体通胀低于预期，录得0.86%，低于市场预估的0.88%

墨西哥3月通胀0.86%低预期0.88%，差0.02个百分点：Banxico降息压力减轻、维持鹰派更稳。高利差支撑比索carry，USD/MXN波动或下行，利多比索多头与卖虚值认沽策略。

10

Apr 2026

3月，墨西哥核心通胀录得0.38%，略低于市场预期的0.4%

墨西哥3月核心通胀0.38%低于预期0.4%，通胀降温加速：Banxico或延续降息周期，比索承压；可关注USD/MXN看涨、TIIE互换及墨股ETF机会。

10

Apr 2026

纽元/美元在欧洲时段上涨0.2%，逼近0.5835；美国与伊朗确认将访问巴基斯坦进行会谈

美伊将赴巴基斯坦谈“10点和平提案”，风险情绪回暖推NZD/USD升至0.5835并守20日EMA。中国PMI、GDT与利差撑纽元，目标0.5900；可用看涨期权或跨式捕捉波动。

10

Apr 2026

尽管伊朗停火局势仍显脆弱，美元兑瑞郎小幅走高，守在0.7900上方

停火裂痕+霍尔木兹海峡关闭，避险升温推升美元/瑞郎站稳0.7900。VIX破25、WTI飙近5%。聚焦PCE与周五CPI，期权策略应对波动。

10

Apr 2026

三菱日联金融集团的Derek Halpenny表示，日本银行和保险公司创纪录抛售海外债券，暗示需求格局正在转变

日本3月创纪录净卖海外债券，两月逾7万亿日元撤退！银行寿险结账+美元强势获利了结。新财年会否回流JGB？或引爆日元转强与期权波动升温。

10

Apr 2026

德国商业银行称：波兰央行应维持利率不变，伊朗引发的油价冲击或推迟降息周期

油价冲击打断波兰降息周期！德商银行称NBP将长期按兵不动，利率维持5.25%；除非布伦特跌破70美元，否则降息无望，市场重定价。

10

Apr 2026

投资者质疑伊朗停火能否持久，英镑兑主要货币小幅走低，兑美元徘徊于1.3400附近

英镑回落！美伊停火存变数、风险情绪转谨慎；英央行料降息而美联储按兵不动，美元获撑。VIX低企令期权成本不高，利布局英镑走弱。

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