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14

Apr 2026

塔博尔斯基预计罗马尼亚通胀率接近11%并超过10%，料其央行将维持利率不变直至2026年

罗马尼亚通胀飙至9.9%料4月冲11%，央行或2026才降息；捷克通胀回升但偏低，EUR/CZK守24.250；匈牙利EUR/HUF料355–360，交易偏FRA与卖波动率策略。

14

Apr 2026

英镑/日元升至2008年高位：油价走高削弱日元，情绪改善提振英镑，谈判希望升温

英镑/日元七连升至215.60、创2008年来新高。油价与美伊谈判牵动避险日元；IMF警告油价或冲125美元。技术仍偏多，上看217-220，失守215恐回213/210.88。

14

Apr 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）李·哈德曼称，随着美伊会谈再次缓和紧张局势，美元指数回落

中东降温令美元反弹乏力、回吐涨幅；油价跌破100美元，北欧与商品货币领涨。美元指数104.5盘整，适合卖波动收权利金；日圆续弱，隐忧促AUD/JPY用价外看跌期权低成本对冲。

14

Apr 2026

摩根大通公布经调整首季盈利与营收超预期，每股5.94美元，同比上升

摩根大通EPS与营收双双超预期、连续四季报喜，但股价年内仍跑输大盘，“卖在消息”浮现；财报后隐波回落，宜备兑/铁秃鹰收权利金，反弹可用保护性看跌。

14

Apr 2026

法国巴黎银行斯特凡·阿尔比：海湾经济体能承受冲突冲击；霍尔木兹受扰将冲击巴林、科威特、卡塔尔；油价走高利好沙特与阿联酋

霍尔木兹受阻推高油价、压缩海湾GDP：科威特等最伤，沙特阿联酋靠管线缓冲。波动飙升催生交易机会：偏好限定风险期权价差，并可配对多TASI空科威特。

14

Apr 2026

在经历九天连涨并在早盘进一步上扬后，英特尔股价累计大涨62%，触发极端卖出信号

英特尔连涨9天、第10天续冲，累涨62%，自美政府2025年入股后飙逾250%，市值3300亿；但2027年预期P/E达60倍偏贵，逼近阻力线，67美元或转折，或回调至53。

14

Apr 2026

荷兰合作银行策略师预计墨西哥央行将于5月初降息25个基点，年底利率降至6.50%

抢跑6月！Rabobank料Banxico 2026年5月7日先降息25基点，年底利率见6.50%。经济转弱但通胀4.5%高企，政策摇摆推升MXN波动，期权布局机会浮现。

14

Apr 2026

3月，美国核心生产者价格指数按月上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.6%增幅

美国3月核心PPI仅升0.1%爆冷，通胀降温快过预期：美联储或转鸽、降息押注升温。布局SOFR期货、买成长股指数看涨，并卖出标普价外看跌价差收权利金。

14

Apr 2026

3月美国核心生产者价格同比上涨3.8%，低于预期的4.2%

美国3月核心PPI按年仅升3.8%，低于预期4.2%引爆市场：通胀黏性松动，9月降息概率飙近60%。利率走低、美债与科技股受惠，美元或续弱。

14

Apr 2026

3月，美国月度生产者物价指数（PPI）上涨0.5%，低于预期的1.2%

美国3月PPI按月仅0.5%，远低于预期1.2%，通胀降温！FedWatch显示6月加息概率骤降至40%，利好债券与科技股，VIX或回落，策略可转向做多利率与股指。

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