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Live Updates

18

Jul 2026

中国楼市下行进入第五年：一线城市市场趋稳，低线城市持续低迷

楼市下行将满五年：房价L型、城市K型分化，新开工仅剩峰值24%。抓住机会：做空铁矿铜、做多绿科电车；对冲人民币走弱，期权布局房企分化。

18

Jul 2026

墨西哥比索走软，美伊紧张局势推高美元；市场聚焦墨西哥数据与美联储前景

避险升温！美伊紧张与油价走高推美元走强，墨西哥比索跌逾0.65%，USD/MXN回升至17.53。下周墨西哥数据与美联储预期或再掀波动。

18

Jul 2026

美元/日元企稳，片山的日元警告效应消退，散户转向日元期权

财务大臣强硬警告也难撼USD/JPY：口头干预“例行化”令市场麻木。日本散户却急转看多日元，净空锐减。自满下隐波回落，正是低价买入美元/日元看跌期权良机。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：日元净空头略微收窄，投机者仍暴露于潜在挤仓风险

日本CFTC：日元净空从-123.8k收窄至-122.7k，仍偏空但回补浮现。超-120k易触发挤压；10年债息约1.1%牵动BoJ。策略：少追空，买便宜OTM日元看涨期权。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示，因高产量及需求担忧拖累，原油投机者削减净多头仓位

CFTC：原油投机净多降至62.7K，资金撤退显著。高供应叠加全球需求忧虑，油价恐破支撑。衍生品宜转防御：买WTI保护性put或做熊市看涨价差。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：随着投机客削减看空押注，英镑净空头收窄

英镑空头降温？CFTC显示GBP非商业净持仓由£-87.9k收窄至£-71.3k，空头回补或新增多头兴趣升温，但整体仍偏净空头。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示，黄金投机客削减净多头仓位，暗示短期价格或进入盘整期

黄金投机多头降温：CFTC非商业净多头从194.2K回落至186.7K。短线或横盘小回调，但跌幅不大更像买点；可用牛市价差、卖Otm沽布局。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：标普500净空头回落，持仓趋近持平

CFTC：标普500净空降至-3.89万张，逼近中性。空头回补升温，卖压收敛、底部更稳；期权策略转向偏多：牛市价差或备兑收权利金。

18

Jul 2026

美元/新元稳守在1.2905附近，UOB提示区间交易格局并警示跌破1.2860风险

跌深后USD/SGD在1.2905企稳，短线料1.2890-1.2920横摆，可用铁秃鹰收权利金。盯紧1.2860失守转空、破1.2930止损。关注MAS偏强与Fed降息压美元，波动或放大。

18

Jul 2026

英镑下挫，油价推升通胀担忧升温，令英伦银行政策前景更趋复杂

油价因地缘紧张飙升，通胀忧虑重燃拖累英镑连跌，GBP/USD回落至1.3449。衍生品可用1.3300看跌期权对冲，并配布伦特看涨，把握波动。

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