Live Updates

16

Oct 2026

美国零售销售（剔除汽车）超预期，推迟降息预期并提振美元前景

美国9月零售销售（剔车）劲升0.9%超预期，消费韧性爆表！降息预期或延后，推高短端美债收益率与美元；股市估值承压，消费板块仍有机会。

15

Oct 2026

美元/瑞郎反弹至0.8300上方，美联储偏鸽抵消瑞士生产者通胀放缓影响

联储鸽派令美元急挫，USD/CHF 回吐至0.8300上方。瑞士PPI转弱凸显通胀温和，SNB续守0%，政策分化加剧；市场聚焦美国PPI指引。

15

Oct 2026

印度央行抑制投机，但美元坚挺与油价反弹限制卢比涨势，美元/印度卢比回落反转

RBI 收紧抑制投机、稳住卢比，空头重建更谨慎；但强美元与高油价令 USD/INR 跌破95后反弹。技术面或放缓下跌，关注94.70支撑、95.60阻力。

15

Oct 2026

金价维持在4,150美元下方，美元走软抵消美国CPI高企与中东风险

金价回落至4,150美元下方，得益于美债收益率下滑与美元走软终止三连跌。CPI回升重燃加息定价超85%，中东风险升温；关注PPI与沃什讲话，关键阻力4,220、支撑4,065。

15

Oct 2026

日本央行小枝警示日元贬值推升通胀风险，称AI需求带动价格上扬需及时调整利率

日银委员小枝警告：日元贬值、AI需求与中东风险推高通胀。央行或需在中性利率高于1%框架下，随经济物价及时调息，并评估AI出口投资对生产率与缺工影响。

15

Oct 2026

美元/日元跌向157.60，干预风险与美联储暂停加息预期施压

USD/JPY 回落至 157.60 一周低点：BoJ 紧缩与干预风险压制，美元因美债收益率下滑回吐。技术破位看 156.71/155.98；衍生品宜对冲、控杠杆。

15

Oct 2026

中国人民银行将美元兑人民币中间价定得更坚挺，人民币政策框架强调稳中求进与改革

人民币中间价微升至6.7253，释放稳汇率、托增长信号。人行在政府架构监督下，运用逆回购、MLF、外汇干预与RRR，并借LPR传导利率；民营银行生态持续扩容。

15

Oct 2026

随着地缘政治风险升温，美国考虑放宽对“影子舰队”制裁，WTI跌破94美元

WTI五连涨后回落至93.10美元，华府或放宽“影子船队”制裁压运费；但霍尔木兹遇袭、俄炼厂受袭与大幅去库存，波动恐再飙。谨慎看空。

15

Oct 2026

美元/日元回吐通胀推动的涨幅，随着美债收益率回落，焦点转向美联储与日本央行政策分歧

美元/日元通胀后冲高回吐，跌回158附近；美债收益率与利差主导方向。关注费城联储、工业产出及10月央行会议，159逼近干预风险升温。

15

Oct 2026

欧元/美元跌至2025年5月低点，美国通胀火热推高美联储加息押注，美元走强

美国通胀超预期引爆美元指数创新高，EUR/USD跌至1.11附近；FedWatch押注10月再加息、12月近95%。叠加法国不确定性与技术破位，期权偏空布局瞄准1.10。

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