Live Updates

23

Jul 2026

ING：预计欧洲央行将维持利率在2.25%，受油价推升通胀预期影响，市场已计入9月加息预期

油价升温推高通胀，ING 料欧央行本次按兵不动，存款利率守在 2.25%。市场却已计入约 23bp 加息，9 月加息大概率；意外加息属尾部风险。

23

Jul 2026

布伦特油价升破97美元，霍尔木兹海峡忧虑与红海袭击推升原油风险溢价

布伦特油价冲破97美元创多周新高，美伊紧张与霍尔木兹航运受阻推升风险溢价。极端波动来袭：建议用看涨价差、保护性看跌与周度期权控成本、抓上行。

23

Jul 2026

油价与收益率压力拖累日元走低，美元/日元升破163创年内新高

油气飙升压日元，USD/JPY破163创新高；低息货币同步走弱。日银或9月加息仍难扭转。策略：做多上行期权设敲出/跨式，备深虚值Put防回撤。

23

Jul 2026

英镑兑欧元涨势消退，仓位、并购资金流向与利差发出反转信号

英镑近月反弹看似强势，实为仓位、套息与一次性资金流驱动；避险溢价在汇率消退却留在英债。EUR/GBP贴近下沿，建议转向做多欧元、买看涨期权。

23

Jul 2026

美国期货下跌，Alphabet上调2026年资本开支；油价逼近100美元，加剧融资与保证金压力

Alphabet上调2026年capex至2050亿美元拖累美股期货，但亚洲供应链走强。油价逼近100加压成本。焦点转向发债与现金流：用put防守云巨头、call押半导体，并做多波动率。

23

Jul 2026

受中东供应风险及市场关注欧洲央行动向影响，WTI延续五连涨，逼近89美元

WTI连涨五日逼近90美元，霍尔木兹与曼德海峡风险扰动全球27%能源供应。聚焦ECB与API/EIA库存。策略：long call、近ATM跨式、牛市价差布局波动。

23

Jul 2026

ING认为随着利率走低，英镑夏季涨势将逐渐消退，推动欧元/英镑年底逼近0.88

ING：英镑夏季反弹靠仓位、套息与并购资金，非基本面。预期英短端利率下行、秋季财政风险再起，英镑回吐；EUR/GBP 年底看 0.88，2027 望 0.90。GBP/USD 料 1.32-1.36 震荡。

23

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹与红海局势紧张推升布伦特原油上行风险，黑海停供加剧供应紧张

霍尔木兹海峡与红海升温，油价短线或冲破布伦特95.5美元、裂解差逼近68美元。黑海中断与欧盟登检“影子船队”放大波动；宜短期期权抓上行，警惕回归。

23

Jul 2026

亚太股市走高，美国科技资本开支带动芯片股；日元走软，红海遇袭推动油价跳涨

亚太股市借美企巨额资本开支走强，芯片领涨；但Alphabet、特斯拉业绩拖累科技情绪。日元续弱、油价因红海风险上行，澳洲就业爆表推升加息押注；建议纳指防守、做多USD/JPY与原油期权。

23

Jul 2026

英国数据削弱英国央行前景，欧元兑英镑连涨第六日，静待欧洲央行决议

欧元连涨六日逼近0.8645，英镑因通胀偏软与财政疑云承压。ECB决议前多头占优：关注EUR/GBP短期看涨、英镑虚值看跌，或跨式押注波动。

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