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Live Updates

28

Jul 2026

日本央行料维持利率在1.00%，在关注日元与通胀之际保留收紧倾向

日银7月料按兵不动但偏鹰：企业景气与零售稳、核心通胀回落仍受弱日圆与进口价牵动。市场押注9/10月再加息，中性利率或近2%，日债曲线更陡。

28

Jul 2026

Warjiyo辞职引发印尼盾波动担忧，美元兑印尼盾徘徊在历史低位附近

印尼央行行长瓦吉约突辞、斯里穆利亚尼早前离任，领导层动荡令印尼盾逼近历史低位。市场忧BI独立与财政赤字，USD/IDR破18,200；期权、NDF与跨式成对冲利器。

28

Jul 2026

随着美联储加息概率上升、油价下跌削弱通胀对冲吸引力，金价跌至4,047美元

金价回落至4,047美元，决议前罕见33%加息机率压制多头；油价走弱再添压力。技术或探3,940，短线先反弹4,070。策略：近价跨式、反弹布熊价差。

28

Jul 2026

星展认为美元受美联储降息预期与油价下跌拖累，美元指数（DXY）下行风险成焦点

DBS警示：美元正处关键拐点！期货押注FOMC意外加息38%，但若按兵不动并淡化指引，DXY或急跌；油价下滑强化暂停预期，建议买价外DXY看跌期权。

28

Jul 2026

美联储料将释放鹰派信号，沃什警示通胀风险，伊朗引发油价冲击与不确定性加剧

美联储或放鹰但强调“高度不确定”、不点阵图；9月加息已被充分计价，美元冲高恐回落。策略：逢高做空美元、SOFR跨式捕波动，油价冲击用原油看涨对冲。

28

Jul 2026

美元/加元随油价下跌而走低，市场静候美联储决议并关注美伊谈判

油价跌至79.40美元拖累加元，但USD/CAD仍回落至1.4113。焦点转向周三美联储，维持利率概率62%。盯紧1.4157突破与1.3962支撑，多空或剧烈拉扯。

28

Jul 2026

中东风险缓和拖累油价下滑；科技股财报与美联储决议提振美元、打压金价

油市风向突变：中东降温致WTI、布伦特跳空挫6美元，投机平仓加剧。美股承压AI投入，聚焦财报+Fed。美元偏强压金，黄金守2350；AUDCAD区间操作。

28

Jul 2026

迷你纳指期货9月合约自28,800回落，关注28,000支撑，跌破27,700恐引发进一步下行风险

纳指9月期货冲击28800失败急跌回测28000-27850，或筑短底。多头止损27700下；破位转空看27550乃至27190。反弹阻力28400-28480。季节性Q3常回撤。

28

Jul 2026

第二季财报将出炉，Visa与万事达卡成焦点，期权策略备受关注

财报季高峰来袭：Visa预期上调，EPS料增11.8%、营收增8.4%，适合牛市看涨价差避IV回落；Mastercard预期微降但营收料增15%，宽跨式捕捉双向波动。

28

Jul 2026

在关税逆风与美联储不确定性下，美元/瑞郎延续七连涨，瑞郎回落

法郎避险需求降温、关税与低利率预期拖累，USD/CHF七连涨至0.8190。美联储决议在即，期权与利差交易或迎波动机会；瑞士利率料0%至2027年。

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