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3

Aug 2026

尽管市场憧憬特朗普与伊朗达成协议，WTI仍大跌；油轮遇袭令中东供应风险升温

WTI跳空后仍跌近7%至79.3美元，特朗普“海峡将重开”降温情绪；但油轮遇袭、霍尔木兹放缓暴露供应风险。抓错位：买看涨、长跨式或价差押波动反弹。

3

Aug 2026

日本与美国加码协调支援日元，片山暗示将推出更多美元流动性措施

美日罕见同步干预：买日元卖美元，防“过度无序”波动并拟用FIMA供美元。美元/日元跌至156.35。衍生品宜备下行与波动飙升，优先短期限看跌期权。

3

Aug 2026

韩国制造业PMI升至53.1，7月产出与新订单增速加快

韩国7月S&P Global制造业PMI升至53.1，扩张加速。科技与半导体需求韧性强，韩股韩元或续走强；关注KOSPI200看涨、做空USD/KRW及半导体ETF机会。

3

Aug 2026

日本制造业PMI低于预期但仍保持扩张，推升日元与收益率押注

日本7月Jibun Bank制造业PMI报54.5，略低预期54.7但仍强劲扩张。关注日元看涨期权、日经偏中性略空对冲，逢反弹做空10年JGB期货。

3

Aug 2026

美元/日元走高，美日干预风险与中东紧张局势推升波动性

美元/日元反弹至157.65止跌，但美日15年来首度联手干预令回撤风险飙升；中东变局与日银退出QE搅动波动。策略：买价外日元看涨、用价差降成本。

3

Aug 2026

OPEC+将9月原油产量上调18.8万桶/日，中东冲突影响供应

OPEC+9月增产18.8万桶/日延续加供，WTI暴跌6%至81美元；中东风险未解却转抢份额。需求疲弱叠加美产高企，油价或下探75美元。

2

Aug 2026

特朗普暂缓对伊朗发动打击，霍尔木兹海峡相关谈判在即，油价波动仍处高位

特朗普暂缓打击伊朗、周一启动谈判，霍尔木兹海峡成关键变量：原油与OVX或急涨急跌。交易员宜押波动率，跨式/宽跨式与价外看涨对冲，严控仓位止损。

2

Aug 2026

无人机袭击埃及港口推升苏伊士航运走廊风险，油价与股市剧烈震荡

埃及港口遭无人机袭击引爆美LNG油轮，苏伊士能源走廊风险飙升，油价剧震。策略：WTI期权长跨/宽跨捕波动；美股买保护性认沽；谷物回落布局看涨期权。

2

Aug 2026

COT数据标记美元净多头创纪录，欧元转为看涨；原油走软，小麦空头拥挤

美元多头“爆仓级”拥挤：COT显示真实美元指数投机净多创新高、商业端555周极端，欧元同步334周看涨背书。原油快速转空、天然气转强，小麦空头拥挤警惕反弹。

2

Aug 2026

微软助推科技巨头分化：Azure 业绩超预期，美元/日元在干预押注下走低

微软财报炸裂：股价飙16%增值4500亿美元，Azure+Copilot强劲；Meta/苹果承压、亚马逊走高。日元疑干预急挫。关注非农与Fed，布局科技长跨、日元看跌期权。

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