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Live Updates

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI料将放缓，油价波动与美联储加息概率左右欧元/美元及期权定价

美国7月CPI料小幅降温，但油价受霍尔木兹紧张牵动或反复。核心读数若超0.3%重燃加息押注；偏软则压美元。欧元/美元关注1.1570、1.1470。

12

Aug 2026

挪威央行料将鹰派按兵不动，通胀黏性令9月加息仍在视野之内

挪威央行料维持利率4.25%但更鹰派，上调年终路径至略高4.5%，为9月加息铺路。策略：买9月FRA、布局EUR/NOK看跌期权，并关注挪德利差150基点套息机会。

12

Aug 2026

罗马尼亚通胀因基数效应放缓，CEE市场计入捷克与波兰进一步收紧政策预期

罗马尼亚通胀降至8.2%多靠低基数，NBR料2027年前不降息：押注RON利率高更久。中东欧加息预期偏鹰，宜收CZK/PLN，做多两币、做空HUF。

12

Aug 2026

卢比随油价上涨走软；市场等待印度与美国7月通胀数据

油价受霍尔木兹通行骤降推升，拖累卢比续贬，USD/INR 逼近95.52关键均线。印美7月CPI将定调走势，建议期权对冲与区间策略严控风险。

12

Aug 2026

金价企稳于4,400美元上方，静待美国CPI出炉；霍尔木兹与红海风险支撑油价

金价守4,400、油价高位，市场紧盯美国CPI与Fed加息概率75%+。霍尔木兹/红海风险抬升通胀，策略主打期权对冲：黄金待突破4,500.51或回测4,298。

12

Aug 2026

API报告美国原油库存增加910万桶，逆势超出市场原预期下降，拖累WTI油价

API曝美国原油库存暴增907万桶、远超预期，引爆需求转弱警报；WTI或承压下跌3%至5%，期权偏空布局与关注EIA及裂解价差成关键。

12

Aug 2026

美国通过卖出欧元支撑日元，以保卫美元和美债，令欧洲央行措手不及

美国罕见用欧元撑日圆，避压美元与美债收益率，欧洲央行事后才知。日本改用FIMA回购延后抛美债。交易机会：EUR/USD偏空、USD/JPY波动做跨式、黄金与长债看跌。

12

Aug 2026

泰国7月通胀低于预期，强化泰国央行暂缓加息立场，泰铢企稳

泰国7月CPI仅升2%，低于预期，燃油降价压通胀，需求疲弱令压力受控。市场押注BOT利率按兵不动；泰铢借金价反弹但全年仍偏弱，宜期权对冲。

12

Aug 2026

英镑在英国政治风险消退、收益率利差改善下，稳守数月高位附近

英镑兑美元逼近多月高位横盘，政治风险降温、英美利差改善助力强势。下行风险逆转溢价回落，期权策略偏卖虚值看跌；关注1.3450-1.3550区间，突破瞄准1.36。

12

Aug 2026

美元指数在美国CPI公布前稳守100点下方；聚焦原油与黄金波动

美国CPI前DXY守100下方，加息预期降温；霍尔木兹海峡关闭推升油价、黄金高位震荡。策略：WTI买call、黄金牛市价差，欧元买call，美元/日元熊市价差。

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