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Live Updates

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI公布后，澳元兑美元回吐部分涨幅，持稳于0.7070附近，焦点转向PPI

AUD/USD围绕0.7070震荡，CPI核心降至2.5%压低美元；市场盯周四PPI定向。技术枢轴0.7062，守住看0.7071/0.7078；失守或回测0.7016。

12

Aug 2026

纽元/美元下挫，美国通胀趋稳，地缘局势与新西兰政局抑制风险偏好

纽元兑美元回落至0.5865，CPI利多有限、地缘与纽政局压制风险偏好。技术受阻0.5879，破0.5860或看0.5825/0.5760；策略偏买短期Put，兼配DXY价外Call对冲。

12

Aug 2026

道指在美国CPI符合预期后未能守住54,000点，降息押注降温，油价风险加剧拖累市场

CPI符合预期却触顶回落，道指失守54,000显“派发”。能源与霍尔木兹风险推升9月按兵不动至58%。策略：偏空，道指53,800下看53,500/53,000。

12

Aug 2026

油价下滑，因霍尔木兹海峡通行量仍较正常水平低88%，令运费与供应风险持续高企

霍尔木兹“重开”却仅14船通行、较常态跌88%，实体供应仍卡关；布伦特87、WTI81回落但运费走强。期货与现货脱节，关注85/80支撑，逢回买涨。

12

Aug 2026

日元回落，美国CPI符合预期削弱美联储加息押注；美元/日元在159.20附近企稳

美国CPI温和回落，美元兑日圆跌后回升至159.20，9月加息概率降至38%。临近160关口，最大变数是日本再干预；衍生品宜谨慎，买短期Put防急挫。

12

Aug 2026

美国7月CPI符合预期，能源拖累下行，9月美联储加息概率仍低于50%

美7月CPI温和：整体0.1%、核心0.2%，能源拖累、关税传导受控；9月加息定价跌破50%。DXY或续压，策略偏买美元看跌与做多SOFR，警惕PPI反转风险。

12

Aug 2026

特朗普称美国“完全掌控”霍尔木兹海峡，交易员关注油价波动及布伦特—WTI价差

特朗普称美军“完全控制”霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗军政财力告急；地缘风险或推升油价波动。交易员可布局布伦特期权、WTI长跨式，并做多布伦特—WTI价差。

12

Aug 2026

欧元/英镑守在0.8540附近，交易员严阵以待英国GDP数据与英央行政策分歧

英GDP初值明日揭晓，EUR/GBP徘徊0.8540；德7月通胀黏性、BoE内部分歧支撑英镑。技术偏空，短跨式捕捉波动；数据强或下看0.8532。

12

Aug 2026

美国能源信息署（EIA）报告：美国原油库存增加1,740万桶，逆市于预期的下降

爆雷！EIA当周美国原油库存暴增1,742万桶、远超预期减140万桶；油价恐承压。交易转偏空：近月Put、卖虚值Call价差，盯WTI支撑与波动率。

12

Aug 2026

黄金面临回调风险：超买信号与多头拥挤指向可能反转

黄金多日劲升后或迎反转：动能超买、COMEX 净多拥挤，历史 8 月下旬常回调约 2.5%。策略：收紧止损，或用短天期看跌/熊市价差控险。

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