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20

Aug 2026

MUFG人工智能提示7月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，但美元持续走低趋势未改

AI 解读 7 月纪要略偏鹰却难改降息定价：通胀黏性仍受关注，AI 投资或推需求但关税压力消退。DXY 守 101.20，策略偏逢高沽美元、用短期期权与曲线变陡布局。

20

Aug 2026

美股期指走势分化，联储会议纪要引发观望；美债回购提振谨慎情绪，霍尔木兹紧张局势升温

FOMC纪要偏鹰、美债回购加倍、霍尔木兹风险升温，美股期货分化。策略：做多美债看涨、美元偏空，标普波动率交易，原油看涨与指数看跌对冲。

20

Aug 2026

随着印度央行维持利率并逐步退出FCNR(B)计划，印度经济增长料降温至6.7%

印度增长放缓但通胀受控，RBI料维持5.25%并8月底结束FCNR(B)。卢比靠7000亿储备护航：可卖USD/INR波动率、短端OIS偏多，并用油金看涨期权防风险。

20

Aug 2026

美国10年期国债收益率企稳，美财政部将长期国债回购规模翻倍；尽管美联储会议纪要偏鹰，美元仍走软

美国财政部意外把长期回购翻倍至40亿美元，令10年期收益率短暂降温至4.67%、美元走弱。惟规模有限难改通胀赤字压力，波动或再起，策略：买DXY看涨、TLT熊市价差。

20

Aug 2026

香港7月CPI持平于1.7%，支撑利率前景稳定及恒生指数衍生品走势

香港7月CPI按年升1.7%符合预期、按月升0.2%：通胀受控或压低恒指期权隐波。关注HIBOR息差区间交易，港元远期点数大致稳定。

20

Aug 2026

南非通胀降温，但油价与厄尔尼诺风险威胁兰特及降息前景

南非8月通胀回落至4.3%，油价与食品降温助力；但原油高企、厄尔尼诺回归恐推升粮价。趁期权定价偏低，布局USD/ZAR看涨与支付1年Jibar掉期，防兰特走弱与降息落空。

20

Aug 2026

随着美国财政部增加长端回购规模，美元跌至5月低位；杰克逊霍尔会议前，收益率上行受限

美元创5月新低！财政部长端回购翻倍压低收益率，市场押注美联储偏鸽，黄金与瑞郎需求升温；杰克逊霍尔讲话成下一波美元走向关键催化剂。

20

Aug 2026

高油价及FCNR(B)掉期关闭施压印度卢比，美元/印度卢比（USD/INR）瞄准96水平

美元转弱也救不了卢比：油价高企与进口商买美元持续施压。RBI抛售仅缓跌。FCNR(B)窗口提前关闭恐抽走供给，USD/INR或上探96，宜买短期看涨。

20

Aug 2026

金价自200日均线反弹，关注突破4,520点，未来数周目标看向5,000点

黄金回升夯实6月以来底部，200日线遇阻属健康喘息。回调4405–4457可逢低布局；日线收4520上方或引爆上攻4657/4673，中期仍瞄准5,000美元。

20

Aug 2026

瑞士7月贸易顺差扩大至83.7亿瑞郎，提振瑞郎前景

抢先布局CHF？瑞士7月贸易顺差飙至83.70亿瑞郎，出口领先扩大，化工制药助攻；市场料法郎走强。策略：短空USD/CHF、买价外CHF看涨，留意EUR/CHF支撑与SNB干预风险。

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