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Live Updates

27

Aug 2026

美国商品贸易逆差扩大至1188亿美元，再度引发GDP与降息前景忧虑

美国7月商品贸易逆差飙至-1,188亿美元，较预期差198亿！恐拖累Q3 GDP、推升降息押注；美元或走弱，利多出口股期权、利空进口零售板块。

27

Aug 2026

美国7月批发库存激增1.3%，加剧市场对需求与经济增长前景的担忧

美国7月批发库存环比暴增1.3%远超预期，意外累库或预示制造业与GDP降温。交易可转防御：做空消费零售、做多美债，警惕油铜走弱。

27

Aug 2026

布伦特原油从95美元回落，交易员关注83–84美元支撑位及期权对冲

布伦特冲击95美元失败转弱，或下探83-84美元均线支撑；守稳可博反弹，跌破恐再挫6%-8%看75。投机多头撤退，宜用期权对冲与区间策略。

27

Aug 2026

美国国债收益率上升提振美元走强，欧元和英镑走软；日元与加元成焦点

美元趁交投清淡转强，美债息走升牵动G10与新兴汇价：欧元跌破200日线，日元紧盯美债；策略聚焦做多USD/CAD、USD/JPY，看跌欧元英镑，对冲金银回调。

27

Aug 2026

美元走强、美国通胀回升令美联储政策前景受关注，金价自高位回落

金价冲高4,643美元后回吐至4,589美元，强通胀与美元反弹压制；9月按兵不动概率62%。杰克逊霍尔+中东风险或放大波动，期权偏区间铁鹰、短跨式对冲。

27

Aug 2026

欧元跌破1.1650，美国PCE数据支撑美元，市场聚焦美联储主席沃什讲话

欧元/美元连跌再破1.1650，美国PCE通胀挺美元、强化美联储收紧预期。市场仍押9月加息概率36%，聚焦周五杰克逊霍尔沃什讲话及ECB纪要。

27

Aug 2026

渣打预计加拿大央行将按兵不动维持利率在2.25%，降息或推迟至12月

渣打押注加央行利率维持2.25%，降息或延至12月；关税风险仍在但缓和概率较高。市场过度计入2027年前加息65bps，建议利率期货做空隐含加息，并买USD/CAD看涨期权对冲波动。

27

Aug 2026

日元在159.30附近区间波动，市场静待沃什讲话，日央行加息预期升温

美元/日元159.30窄幅盘整，PCE通胀黏性推升美元。Jackson Hole前一周期权波动或升15%-20%，长跨式可博突破；BoJ 9月加息预期升温，关注159.47阻力与日元看涨布局。

27

Aug 2026

市场预计欧洲央行9月加息至2.50%，随后维持利率不变至2027年

市场聚焦：欧洲央行料9月再加息25基点至2.50%后按兵不动至2027年！增长更韧、核心通胀受控，取消2027年转向宽松、降至2.00%预期。

27

Aug 2026

美元走软推动比特币与黄金双双上涨，ETF资金流与监管因素驱动走势分化

美元转弱点燃8月“法币替代品”行情：比特币飙28%破8万美元、黄金触三月高位。但两者相关性不稳——BTC受ETF流入与SEC监管催化，波动更大。

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