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Live Updates

29

Aug 2026

古尔斯比呼应沃什：在美联储对降息保持谨慎之际，需求主导型通胀仍具持续性

杰克逊霍尔放鹰：古尔斯比称通胀仍为头号目标，需求驱动更黏、降息预期降温。市场或迎“高利率更久”，美债收益率偏高、美元走强，期权对冲升温。

29

Aug 2026

市场聚焦美国8月就业报告：非农料回升，失业率料小幅走高

美国8月非农成焦点：就业料回升8万、失业率升至4.2%、薪资稳。劳市温和降温非恶化；欧元区通胀回升、ECB或9月加息，全球数据牵动行情。

29

Aug 2026

英镑下挫，沃什聚焦通胀推升美国加息押注，英伦银行利率路径遭重新定价

英镑/美元受沃什鹰派言论拖累走软，市场重估美联储下月加息概率超60%。BoE紧缩预期延后至2027。策略：近ATM认沽/熊市价差与长跨式押波动。

29

Aug 2026

比特币与黄金回落，交易员重新评估风险敞口；XRP测试支撑位，狗狗币走软

涨势后集体降温：比特币冲81,500受阻恐回测68,000，黄金跌破4,600关注4,500；XRP守1.40防连环清算，DOGE回落14%慎杠杆、改区间短打。

29

Aug 2026

贝克休斯调查显示，美国石油钻井平台数减少五座至447座

抓紧看：贝克休斯最新数据显示，美国石油钻机数从452台降至447台，周减5台。钻机数作为上游钻探与E&P短期动能的关键风向标。

29

Aug 2026

随着美联储加息概率上升及贸易关税扰动市场，欧元兑美元跌破1.1600

美联储杰克逊霍尔偏鹰推升9月加息概率至45.7%，美元反弹压低EUR/USD跌破1.1600。紧盯HICP与非农引爆波动：Put 1.1550、跌破1.1570可空，看1.1350。

29

Aug 2026

比特币跌破8万美元，杰克逊霍尔会议释出美联储偏鹰信号后金价回落

杰克逊霍尔偏鹰言论引爆风险回吐：比特币冲81,500受阻跌破8万，黄金失守4,600。9月季节性偏弱，波动料升；建议用保护性看跌期权/熊 put spread 防御。

29

Aug 2026

澳元/美元走低，鹰派沃什推高美联储9月加息概率；澳洲联储收紧政策提供支撑

AUD/USD冲高0.7206后回落至0.7170：Warsh鹰派言论令9月加息概率飙至60%推升美元；RBA通胀仍顽固支撑澳元。关注0.7110支撑与0.7206阻力，适合卖波动。

28

Aug 2026

沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会未作指引，升息概率上升、收益率曲线趋平

Warsh 杰克逊霍尔不放风，市场对 9 月加息押注升破 40%。曲线扁平、美元走强、金价与比特币走弱。策略：股市买保护性看跌，做空短端，美元多、黄金与英镑偏空。

28

Aug 2026

沃什鹰派言论后美元反弹；交易员关注美元指数（DXY）重测，数据潮来袭

Warsh杰克逊霍尔放鹰助美元指数反弹，或再测100关口；通胀与就业数据成关键催化。CFTC净多回落但仍偏多，建议逢回调做多美元、用看涨价差控风险。

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