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Live Updates

11

Mar 2026

英镑兑美元升至1.3450，中东局势缓和憧憬与油价回落带来英国通胀缓解助力

英镑/美元反弹至1.3450，中东缓和预期与IEA或史上最大释储压低油价，减轻英国通胀风险；但红海与霍尔木兹变数仍在，波动或放大。

11

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行预计欧元兑美元将维持波动，因油价与食品价格上涨推升通胀忧虑并带动美元需求

油价、食品通胀升温点燃避险情绪，Rabobank料欧元/美元至2026年仍高波动区间震荡；下周G10央行会议恐再放大波幅，若霍尔木兹受阻，或下探1.14。

11

Mar 2026

美国经季节调整的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）升至333.51，2月前值为332.79

核心CPI 2月升至333.51、月增0.72，通胀降温不如预期。美联储或更久维持高利率，7月前降息概率下滑；科技成长股承压，VIX飙逾10%，对冲需求升温。

11

Mar 2026

美国2月份核心消费者价格指数（CPI）环比符合预期，按整体来看如期上升0.2%

美国2月核心CPI月增0.2%符预期，通胀“金发姑娘”降温市场紧张：VIX或回落14下。美联储继续观望，降息押注推至2026年中，期权策略偏卖波动、谨慎看多。

11

Mar 2026

2月，美国核心CPI同比上涨2.5%，符合市场对全年数据的预期

美国2月核心CPI年增2.5%符合预期，最大不确定性落地。VIX料续低，股市或转区间；卖权利金策略更吃香，如SPX宽跨式/铁鹰、个股call价差与SPY日历价差。

11

Mar 2026

美国2月月度消费者物价指数（CPI）符合预测，上涨0.3%，符合市场预期

美国2月CPI月升0.3%符合预期，意外风险消退、隐含波动或回落；VIX偏低利好卖权利金与铁鹰策略。降息预期小降，科技成长稳中有限，关注就业与3月通胀。

11

Mar 2026

华侨银行（OCBC）策略师指出，随着美元与油价回落，加上伊朗紧张局势缓和，金价出现反弹

黄金反弹有戏：美元跌破103、油价回落及伊朗冲突降温提振；降息预期升温与央行买盘回温支撑。关注5105-5060支撑、5260-5315阻力，期权期货可布局。

11

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）Derek Halpenny称，国际能源署（IEA）计划释放3亿至4亿桶原油，料可在未来数周缓解供应压力

IEA拟破纪录释3-4亿桶储备应对霍尔木兹风险，仅覆盖15-20天运输量；供应缓冲偏薄推高OVX至38，投资者或转向跨式/宽跨式做多波动率。

11

Mar 2026

1月巴西零售销售月增0.4%，高于经济学家预期的下滑0.1%

巴西1月零售销售意外按月增0.4%，扭转下滑预期，消费韧性超想象。服务通胀升温令降息更谨慎，利率期货降息预期收敛。交易员宜重检Ibovespa偏空，关注零售金融Call价差。

11

Mar 2026

野村上调欧元区HICP预测；伊朗冲突推升能源成本或促使欧央行出手，2026年通胀料高于目标

油气假设上调触发连锁反应：野村大幅调高欧元区通胀预期，2026年HICP看2.7%、2027年2.2%；若伊朗冲突推升能源，ECB或更鹰，2028年甚至两次加息。

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