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27

May 2026

加拿大元在G10货币中表现落后；加拿大央行与美联储政策分歧扩大，美元/加元遇阻

加元跑输G10？政策分歧与利差扩大拖累，加银或6月降息、美联储偏鹰。USD/CAD阻力1.3850，公允值1.3672；区间为主，卖价外call并买长put对冲。

27

May 2026

新西兰央行分歧表决维持OCR于2.25%，上调利率路径与通胀展望

3比3平票下，RBNZ维持OCR 2.25%却大幅上调利率与通胀路径，暗示更早更猛加息；纽元与短端利率齐升。油价高企、政策分化放大波动与交易机会。

27

May 2026

美国Redbook指数升至9%，消费支出走强令美联储对降息保持警惕

红皮书指数同比跳升至9%，美国消费更强！通胀压力续存，美联储或更鹰派、降息预期再降。策略：看多零售ETF期权，谨慎债券，买VIX看涨对冲。

27

May 2026

匈牙利央行维持利率在6.25%，鸽派倾向推升6月降息押注，并支撑福林

匈牙利央行按兵不动却放鸽，市场确认6月降息25bp并下修终端利率至约5.25%。利差与通胀回落支撑福林，策略偏向买入EUR/HUF看跌期权。

27

May 2026

ADP四周就业平均值下滑，推升市场对美联储降息押注与波动率对冲需求

美国ADP四周均值降至3.575万，私营招聘降温！叠加非农仅8.5万、核心CPI回落，市场或低估年内降息；布局SOFR期货，配标普put与VIX call对冲波动。

27

May 2026

布伦特油价跌破50日均线，法兴警示霍尔木兹风险及下行关键位

布伦特跌破50日均线、正考验96美元支撑；失守恐下看90/91及86。法兴推演霍尔木兹通航：6月初恢复年底约85，延后恐飙150–160，若封至年底或破200。

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