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2

Jul 2026

英镑走强美元回落，市场严阵以待美国非农数据重塑美联储政策预期

英镑升至1.3340，美元等非农前走弱；市场押注11万偏弱，隐波升至9.8%预示大波动。若数据爆冷GBP/USD望测1.3450；意外强劲美元或急反弹。

2

Jul 2026

德意志商业银行：美国就业报告市场影响力减弱，美联储关注焦点仍在通胀

非农恐难再掀巨震：JOLTS稳健但NFP波动与下修多，美联储重心转向通胀。期权波动率走低，策略宜少赌非农，转布局CPI与卖权利金。

2

Jul 2026

欧元兑英镑下滑逼近0.8550，欧元区通胀放缓削弱市场对欧洲央行7月加息的押注

欧元区通胀降至2.8%削弱ECB加息押注，EUR/GBP徘徊0.8550偏弱；英薪资高企撑BoE偏鹰。关注拉加德与贝利讲话，0.8500若破或看0.8400，期权布局。

2

Jul 2026

美元/日元自40年高位回落，日本干预传闻推升波动率并重估期权定价

美元/日元突挫至161引爆干预猜测，假期低流动放大波动；隐波飙升、技术偏空。关注160支撑与161.6阻力，策略偏买跌期权并留意CPI与日银鹰派。

2

Jul 2026

美元/加元回落至1.4190，市场等待美国非农数据并重新评估美联储前景

NFP前美元兑加元回吐涨幅徘徊1.4190；ADP、ISM偏软增降息预期。惟油价跌压加元，波动率升温，宜用跨式或期权布局，关注1.4050支撑。

2

Jul 2026

西班牙五年期国债拍卖收益率降至2.835%，市场押注欧洲央行降息支撑需求

西班牙5年期国债拍卖收益率降至2.835%，融资成本下滑；德西利差收窄至45bp。通胀1.9%加剧欧央行降息预期，IBEX35与CDS交易机会浮现。

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