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17

Jul 2026

欧元/美元企稳于1.1445附近，中东风险与美联储鹰派立场支撑美元

中东紧张升温、美元避险需求抬头，EUR/USD 守 1.1445。美联储偏鹰、ECB 或观望但9月存加息变数；建议做空反弹、买虚值看跌或跨式捕捉波动。

17

Jul 2026

伊朗敦促胡塞武装威胁关闭曼德海峡，美军空袭推高油价风险

红海油路或被掐断！伊朗指示胡塞备战，IRGC或控曼德海峡封锁时点；美伊冲突升级冲击供给。策略：买布油虚值看涨、做多波动率与FFA运费多头。

17

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势推高通胀与美国加息押注，金价下滑逼近八个月低点

金价亚洲早盘跌至3,975美元逼近八个月低点。中东升温恐推高油价与通胀，强化美利率高企预期；红海与霍尔木兹风险削弱无息黄金吸引力。

17

Jul 2026

韩国央行加息至2.75%，晶片波动加剧促使当局收紧杠杆ETF与ETN监管

韩国意外升息至2.75%挺韩元，却遇半导体股暴跌。监管收紧记忆体杠杆ETF/ETN并停新发，或改写波动与期权策略：跨式捕波动、障碍外汇对冲。

17

Jul 2026

美元/日元徘徊于163下方，日元干预效应减弱，CPI与美联储成市场焦点

美元/日圆死守162.50下方、波动率极度压缩成“弹簧盘”。163受阻、162有买盘。日本曾11.7兆干预仍回吐。关注7/23日CPI与7/29美联储；宜用跨式/障碍期权押突破164或跌破162。

17

Jul 2026

WTI跌破79美元，尽管中东风险与供应充裕，80美元关口仍守住

WTI 三拒 80 美元回落，地缘火药味浓却难撑溢价。全球供应偏宽松至 2026：美国产量 1350 万桶/日，非 OPEC 增产。策略偏空，盯 78/77.5/76；突破 80.5 才转多，警惕曼德海峡与沙特设施突袭风险。

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