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20

Aug 2026

日本7月贸易逆差收窄至6345亿日元，日元走强及加息预期升温

日本7月贸易逆差收窄至6345亿日元，优于预期6800亿：出口韧性支撑日元走强与日银加息空间，关注USD/JPY看跌、日经期权对冲及10年JGB空头机会。

20

Aug 2026

日本7月贸易逆差收窄至6860亿日元，提振日元前景与日本央行鹰派倾向

日本7月经调贸易逆差缩至6860亿日元，较前值明显收窄；出口动能回暖、进口成本趋稳，或缓解日元下行，鹰派预期升温，关注日元多头与近价看涨期权。

20

Aug 2026

日本7月出口飙升23.2%，超预期并提振日元及市场对日本央行加息预期

日本7月出口按年飙23.2%远超预期，外需韧性强；升息预期升温或推日元走强。交易上可布局日元看涨、USD/JPY看跌及低波动率跨式，兼顾日股回调机会。

20

Aug 2026

特朗普警告将祭出对伊朗最严厉制裁阿联酋暂停与德黑兰贸易油价风险溢价受关注

特朗普祭最严厉对伊制裁，威胁二级制裁堵油走私通道；阿联酋暂停对伊贸易。市场低估供应中断，WTI守85美元。建议买价外看涨、做多波动，警惕亚洲炼利受压。

20

Aug 2026

美元/日元跌至200日指数移动平均线，因美债回购压低收益率、市场押注日本央行加息升温

美债长端回落+美财库回购加倍，推动美元/日元重挫至158、贴近200日EMA。日央行9月加息概率近80%。交易上159.5下方逢高沽，失守158看157.5/156.5。

20

Aug 2026

澳洲失业率升至4.5%且就业人数下滑，抑制加息预期

澳洲7月失业率意外升至4.5%，就业净减1.58万、参与率回落，澳元走软。RBA加息压力减，降温效应或扁平收益率曲线，波动机会浮现。

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