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4

May 2026

伊朗战争进入第三个月之际，特朗普质疑德黑兰提出的和谈条件是否能让他完全满意

战事三个月，伊朗提议一月内谈妥重开霍尔木兹、解封并降温冲突；特朗普嫌不足。WTI 跌至98.18。高波动下，看跌期权或宽跨式押注分化行情。

4

May 2026

霍尔木兹海峡局势紧张之际，交易员推高澳元，市场押注澳洲联储加息推动澳元/美元逼近0.7215

澳元兑美元亚洲早盘升至0.7215，市场押注RBA周二再加息、概率近80%。但中东紧张推升美元避险需求，特朗普护航霍尔木兹海峡增添波动。

3

May 2026

在中东局势不明朗之际，投资者争论AI股票估值过高，金融科技则崛起为华尔街具韧性的价值选择

中东不确定性推高VIX至25，全球股市回撤；七巨头跌更深、估值降。资金转向估值更实在的fintech：SoFi卖现金担保认沽、Block做看涨价差、Nubank用跨式押注牌照事件。

2

May 2026

新加坡制造业PMI从此前的50.5小幅升至50.7，显示行业温和扩张

PMI升至50.7、九连扩张，电子与NODX拉动，科技需求回暖。利好STI偏多策略：买call、卖深度价外put；新元或更强，USD/SGD看涨受限，降息预期降温。

2

May 2026

澳元/美元维持在0.7200附近偏强，微幅走高，料录得周线涨幅，但上行仍受压制

澳元兑美元曾在0.7100–0.7200横盘，RSI与吞没形态偏多但阻力密集。如今受美澳利差与商品走弱压制，焦点转向0.6600–0.6700，新行情拐点将至。

2

May 2026

日本CFTC日圆非商业净持仓降至-102.1K日圆，前值为-94.5K

CFTC显示日元投机净空头扩大至-10.21万张，为数月最偏空之一。美核心通胀黏着、降息预期延后，利差与套息交易推升USD/JPY，上看165。投资者关注做空与期权。

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