Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- USD/CHF trades at 0.80546, little changed but near the 0.78718 June low.
- Trump’s 39% tariff on Swiss imports targets key luxury and consumer goods sectors.
The Swiss franc remains under pressure, hovering near 0.81 per dollar as U.S. tariffs and domestic policy expectations weigh on sentiment. On August 7, President Donald Trump’s 39% levy on Swiss imports took effect, targeting high-value sectors such as watches, cosmetics, precision instruments, and chocolates.
Key export categories like gold, silver, and pharmaceuticals were spared, but the breadth of the tariffs still threatens Switzerland’s trade balance and growth outlook.
At the same time, inflation remains below the Swiss National Bank’s 2% target, reinforcing speculation that policymakers could cut rates further, potentially back into negative territory. This dovish tilt has widened policy divergence with the Federal Reserve, where rate cuts are expected but from a far higher base.
Technical Analysis
USD/CHF has been in a prolonged downtrend since February’s high near 0.9200, sliding to a low of 0.7872 in July. Since then, the pair has managed a modest recovery, consolidating above the 0.8000 level.
Short-term moving averages are flattening and beginning to converge with the longer-term average, suggesting that downside momentum has eased for now.
The MACD has also moved closer to the zero line, signalling a potential shift toward neutral or mildly bullish sentiment.
In the near term, holding above 0.8000 is key for maintaining stability. A breakout above 0.8200 could open room for further recovery toward 0.8350, while a drop back below 0.8000 would expose the July low. Price action will likely remain sensitive to US dollar sentiment and Swiss franc safe-haven flows in the coming weeks.
Cautious Forecast
A sustained push above 0.8200 could open the path toward 0.8350, especially if U.S. data outperforms and the SNB signals deeper easing. Conversely, renewed selling below 0.8000 would put the 0.78718 low back in focus, potentially exposing 0.7800.
