Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- S&P 500 trades at 6,386.76, down 0.19%, after hitting resistance near 6,439.58 earlier in August.
- Futures mirror Canadian TSX declines as markets wait for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
The S&P 500 edged lower on Thursday, retreating to 6,386.76 as traders avoided fresh bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s three-day Jackson Hole conference.
Futures on both Wall Street and Canada’s TSX slipped 0.09%, with global markets holding a cautious tone until Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday offers clarity on the path of U.S. monetary policy.
The backdrop remains sensitive: a weakening U.S. labour market, coupled with President Donald Trump’s pressure on Fed leadership, has raised expectations for policy easing.
Traders are now watching for signs of a September rate cut, while U.S. business activity data later in the day could sharpen the picture.
Commodities also reflected the split tone in risk sentiment. Gold and copper eased, while oil prices firmed on stronger U.S. demand signals and ongoing uncertainty over Ukraine peace efforts.
In Canada, July producer price data due later in the day will be scrutinised for hints that the Bank of Canada could restart its rate-cutting cycle after holding at 2.75% since March.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has staged a strong recovery since the April low of 4,802, rallying steadily to its current level near 6,387.
Price action is holding above both short- and medium-term moving averages, showing that the bullish structure remains intact despite some recent consolidation.
Picture: S&P 500 consolidates near record highs while momentum shows signs of cooling, as seen on the VT Markets app
The MACD, however, is flattening, reflecting that momentum is slowing after the sustained rally.
In the near term, resistance sits around 6,400, with a breakout above potentially extending the uptrend toward 6,500. On the downside, support lies at 6,250 and then 6,000 if pressure builds.
Overall, the index remains bullish while above its rising moving averages, though the pace of gains could cool as traders lock in profits and await fresh macro catalysts.
Cautious Forecast
If Powell signals readiness to cut rates, the index could quickly retest 6,440 and push toward 6,500. Conversely, a hawkish or ambiguous tone could extend the pullback toward 6,300, with a deeper slide risking a test of the 6,100 base.
