Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Brent crude trades at $67.75, down 0.7%, while WTI slips 0.8% to $64.27.
- Geopolitical risks from U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets underpin volatility.
Oil prices eased in early Tuesday trade, paring part of Monday’s gains but remaining within a narrow range as traders kept their focus on geopolitics. Brent crude fell to $67.75 a barrel and WTI declined to $64.27, after both benchmarks rallied nearly 2% in the previous session.
The global tensions are front and centre. Reports of fresh Ukrainian strikes on Moscow’s energy infrastructure have heightened concern over disruptions, while Washington is weighing additional sanctions that could further restrict Russian crude flows.
Analysts note these risks are already embedded in a growing risk premium, but actual enforcement could tighten supply quickly.
On the demand side, the picture is less supportive. Recent U.S. refinery utilisation data suggests weaker seasonal demand than usual, while China’s industrial output figures have shown slower momentum.
That combination has capped the upside for crude even as supply risks loom large.
The risk premium was reinforced by reports of fresh Ukrainian strikes on Moscow’s energy infrastructure, while the prospect of new U.S. sanctions aimed at tightening Russian exports continues to loom.
Together, these developments highlight supply-side uncertainty even as global demand indicators remain uneven.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) has been highly volatile this year, swinging from April’s low at $55.11 up to July’s high near $77.90 before sliding back toward the mid-$60s. Currently trading around $64.31, the price has found some stability after recent declines.
The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are still pointing slightly lower, reflecting residual bearish pressure, but the short-term averages are trying to turn up, suggesting an attempt to base out.
The MACD, though still below zero, is showing early signs of recovery as the histogram narrows and begins to flip.
In the short term, resistance sits at $66–67, followed by stronger resistance near $70, where price previously stalled. On the downside, $60 remains the key support level, with $55 acting as the major floor.
A decisive break above $67 could open the path back toward $72–75, but if $60 gives way, crude risks a deeper move lower.
For now, the market appears to be in consolidation, awaiting fresh direction from supply-demand headlines, OPEC+ production signals, and US inventory reports.
Cautious Forecast
If sanction risks escalate and infrastructure attacks persist, WTI could grind higher toward $67.00–$70.00. Conversely, if diplomatic efforts gain traction and flows remain stable, crude could slide back toward $61.00–$60.00, resuming its sideways trajectory.
