Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Front-month WTI fell 0.3% to $57.91 per barrel, while Brent slipped 0.3% to $61.76.
- Prices trade near recent lows as steady demand meets rising global risk.
Crude oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading as markets balanced stable demand against a complex mix of macro and global political signals.
Front-month WTI crude futures eased 0.3% to $57.91 per barrel, while front-month Brent crude slipped 0.3% to $61.76 per barrel.
Analysts at our research desk say prices continue to fluctuate at low levels as traders weigh fundamentals against broader risks. The market has yet to find a clear directional catalyst, keeping price action range-bound after recent declines.
Demand Holds Steady But Lacks Momentum
Underlying oil demand remains relatively steady, according to analysts, which has helped prevent a sharper sell-off.
Consumption indicators have not deteriorated materially, but they also lack the strength needed to lift prices decisively from current levels.
This balance has kept crude anchored near recent lows, with traders reluctant to build aggressive positions ahead of clearer signals on global growth and energy consumption into early 2026.
US–Venezuela Tensions Add Risk Premium
Geopolitical risk remains a key variable. Traders are closely monitoring tensions between the United States and Venezuela after Donald Trump said on Monday that the US recently attacked a dock area in Venezuela.
These developments have raised concerns around potential supply disruptions, particularly involving Venezuelan exports.
However, the impact on prices has so far been muted, suggesting markets see the risk as contained rather than immediately threatening global supply.
Macro Backdrop Keeps Pressure on Prices
The broader macro environment continues to weigh on oil. Expectations of slower global growth and cautious risk appetite have capped upside moves, even as global headlines emerge.
Traders remain focused on how US monetary policy and global demand trends may evolve in the first quarter of next year.
With prices already trading near multi-month lows, macro uncertainty has discouraged strong buying interest, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude is attempting a modest rebound after falling to a recent low near $54.87, capping off a multi-month downtrend from its $77.89 peak in mid-2025.
The 5/10/30 moving averages are still aligned bearishly, but price has stabilised above $58 and is beginning to flatten out, hinting at a potential base-building phase.
The MACD remains below the zero line but shows signs of convergence, suggesting downside momentum is slowing. For bulls, reclaiming the $60.00–$61.50 range is key to shifting short-term sentiment.
Failure to do so could see prices retest the $55.00 zone or even break lower.
Cautious Outlook as Risks Remain Balanced
Oil prices may continue to drift within current ranges as steady demand offsets geopolitical risk and macro headwinds.
Unless tensions escalate sharply or demand data surprise to the upside, rallies may struggle to gain traction.
In the near term, WTI may hold between $55.00 and $60.00, while Brent may remain capped between $60.00 and $64.00 as markets await clearer signals.
