Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- WTI climbs to $59.74 as China evaluates US proposal for trade talks.
- OPEC+ weighs June output hikes while Trump warns of Iranian oil sanctions.
Oil markets rallied on Friday as renewed hopes of a thaw in US-China trade tensions lifted sentiment, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising 0.8% to settle at $59.74 a barrel. Brent crude followed suit, gaining 49 cents to reach $62.62. Both benchmarks extended gains made late Thursday, recovering from midweek losses sparked by OPEC+ supply concerns.
The price action comes on the back of China’s Commerce Ministry confirming that Beijing is “evaluating” a proposal from Washington for tariff negotiations. This news helped ease investor anxiety following months of escalating protectionist rhetoric. As fears of a global demand slowdown receded temporarily, oil bulls found renewed momentum.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil has staged a sharp recovery off the $56.38 low, reclaiming ground to close near $59.67. After a steep selloff from $60.13, price consolidated near the lower bound before reversing strongly. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) have now flipped into a bullish alignment, with price holding above all three lines and maintaining an upward trajectory.
Picture: Oil claws back above $59 after a strong bounce from $56. Momentum slows near resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app
The MACD (12,26,9) confirms this bullish momentum with a clean crossover and rising green histogram bars, though the slope is beginning to flatten – hinting at short-term exhaustion. Resistance near $59.85–$60.13 is the next key barrier to watch. If breached, this could open the door for a retest of $61.00.
For now, momentum favours bulls, but consolidation may follow after such an aggressive rebound.
In parallel, President Trump reignited cross-border tensions by threatening secondary sanctions on countries importing Iranian oil. This followed the breakdown of US-Iran nuclear talks, and a revived push to curtail Tehran’s crude exports to zero — part of a wider “maximum pressure” campaign that has historically buoyed prices.
Still, the upside remains tempered. Reuters reported this week that Saudi Arabia is reluctant to extend current supply cuts, despite oil hovering below preferred price levels. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to finalise June’s output plans, with some expected to advocate for a second consecutive hike. Meanwhile, non-OPEC production continues to rise, testing the group’s ability to maintain market balance.
Cautious Outlook
As China’s trade position evolves and OPEC+ deliberates production targets, crude markets remain reactive to headlines. While the rebound has cleared short-term hurdles, further upside depends on clarity from both the White House and Riyadh. Traders should monitor $60.13 for confirmation of bullish continuation.
