Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- WTI crude rose 0.47% to $62.31 as OPEC+ opted for a restrained supply increase.
- U.S. inventories rose 2.78 million barrels last week, above forecasts of 2.25 million.
Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, with WTI crude climbing 0.47% to $62.31 a barrel, as traders reacted to the latest OPEC+ decision and mixed signals from supply data.
The producer group agreed to a smaller-than-expected output hike, the lowest among the options considered, defying market expectations for a more aggressive increase.
The decision reinforced the view that OPEC+ remains committed to maintaining market stability, even as prices hover near multi-month lows.
At the same time, Russian crude shipments have stayed elevated near a 16-month high over the past four weeks, despite signs that Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted refinery operations, forcing Moscow to reroute exports through alternate terminals.
On the bearish side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected domestic production will reach a new record this year, higher than previously forecast.
Industry data also showed a 2.78 million-barrel rise in inventories last week, compared with expectations of a 2.25 million-barrel build. The official EIA report due later today will be closely watched for confirmation.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices (CL-OIL) are trading around $62.31, up 0.47% on the day, attempting to stabilise after weeks of bearish momentum. Despite today’s modest recovery, the broader trend remains cautious as traders weigh slowing global demand against supply-side uncertainty from OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions.
Technically, the market remains trapped within a broad consolidation range between $59.00 and $67.00, with no clear directional breakout in sight. The 5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages remain relatively flat, underscoring a lack of sustained momentum. The MACD indicator continues to hover near the neutral line, with limited divergence between the signal and MACD lines, reflecting muted market conviction.
The short-term structure suggests that $59.00 acts as strong support, marking a psychological and technical floor last tested in mid-September. A decisive break below that level could expose oil to deeper declines toward $55.00. On the upside, resistance lies near $67.00, where repeated failures have capped rallies since late July.
Cautious Forecast
Fundamentally, oil’s outlook remains clouded. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown risk, coupled with weaker manufacturing and energy demand data from China, has weighed on sentiment.
Meanwhile, expectations of steady output from OPEC+ and resilient U.S. inventories have kept prices under pressure. However, any disruption in supply or signs of a rebound in global activity could quickly shift momentum upward.
Overall, crude oil remains range-bound, with short-term rebounds likely to be sold into unless a fundamental catalyst emerges. A sustained move above $67.00 would be needed to confirm renewed bullish traction, while continued trading below $60.00 risks deeper bearish extension.
