Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- WTI trades at $63.37, up 0.35%, while Brent rises 0.3% to $67.85.
- Fading optimism around a Putin-Zelensky summit, boosting geopolitical risk premium.
Crude oil prices firmed on Friday as investors tempered earlier optimism about a near-term Russia-Ukraine cease-fire. Brent climbed to $67.85 a barrel and WTI rose to $63.74, leaving both benchmarks on track to end the week higher.
Our research desk shows that enthusiasm for peace talks has waned, with a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelensky proving difficult to arrange.
Disagreements over potential security guarantees have added friction, with Russia insisting it should play a role in any framework agreed for Ukraine’s protection. The stalling of negotiations has reignited concerns about tougher sanctions on Moscow, which could tighten supply and drive oil higher.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) has had a volatile 2025, with price action swinging widely between April’s low of $55.11 and July’s peak of $77.90. After the strong mid-year rally, momentum has cooled, and oil has drifted lower toward the $63 area, where it is now attempting to stabilise.
The moving averages (5, 10, 30) show a bearish alignment following the recent decline, though the short-term lines are beginning to flatten, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing.
The MACD, still below the zero line, reflects weak momentum but hints at a potential base forming as the histogram shows signs of narrowing.
In the short term, resistance sits around $66–67, which aligns with the moving averages and recent swing highs. A breakout above this zone could invite a retest of $70 and higher.
On the downside, immediate support is at $60, with stronger backing near the April low of $55.
As long as prices hold above $60, the market may be carving out a consolidation base, but a break lower would risk a deeper retracement.
Overall, crude oil remains in a cautious phase, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts such as US inventory data, OPEC policy signals, and global demand outlooks to determine the next decisive move.
Cautious Forecast
If talks continue to stall, WTI could retest the $67.00–$70.00 zone, with geopolitical risk keeping the upside bias intact. A breakthrough in cease-fire discussions, however, would likely deflate the risk premium, dragging crude back toward $60.00.
