Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Nikkei 225 rose 1.53% to 42,580; Topix Index gained 1.03% to 3,080
- Tech momentum led by Alphabet and Apple after Google antitrust reprieve
- Japan 10-year yield eased after touching 17-year highs earlier in the week
- BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated no shift in policy stance unless data demands it
- Eyes now on Friday’s wage growth figures for fresh BOJ signals
The Nikkei 225 Index rebounded sharply on Thursday, jumping 1.53% to close at 42,580 as risk appetite returned across Asia. The broader Topix Index followed suit, adding 1.03% to 3,080, mirroring Wall Street’s overnight gains.
Driving the surge were heavyweight tech names including Alphabet and Apple, which rallied after a U.S. judge ruled against splitting up Google in an ongoing antitrust case.
The legal win for Big Tech sparked a broader relief rally across global equity markets, offering some respite from recent volatility.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also dipped after hitting levels not seen since 2008, providing additional support for equities.
Traders took heart in dovish reassurance from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reiterated that the central bank’s stance remains unchanged so long as inflation and growth evolve as expected.
Still, the market remains sensitive to upcoming data. Friday’s wage report is expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for BOJ policy adjustments heading into Q4.
Standout performers on the day included Fujikura (+5.1%), SoftBank Group (+6.5%), Sanrio (+3.3%), Advantest (+4.7%), and Tokyo Electric Power (+3.1%).
Technical Analysis
The Nikkei 225 has extended its recovery from April’s low at 30,397, pushing steadily higher to trade around 42,626. The index recently tested resistance near 43,946 but pulled back, and it is now consolidating just below that level.
The moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain in bullish alignment, showing that the broader trend is intact, though momentum has eased. The MACD has softened, sitting close to neutral, suggesting a cooling of buying pressure.
Immediate resistance remains at 43,950, and a breakout above would pave the way for a move toward 45,000.
On the downside, first support sits around 42,000, with stronger support at 39,800, a level that has held since early summer.
The overall structure remains bullish, but the index may continue to trade sideways until a fresh catalyst provides direction.
Cautious Forecast
While Thursday’s rally provides near-term relief, caution lingers as bond markets remain volatile and inflation pressures persist. Should Friday’s wage data surprise to the upside, BOJ tightening bets may return, testing equity resilience.
Until then, the Nikkei looks poised to hold its gains but conviction may remain fragile.
