Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Gold dipped to $4,197.93, down $10.63 or 0.25% on the day, marking a weekly loss.
- Labour market softens: ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000, while Challenger layoffs hit 71,000 in November.
Gold prices pulled back beneath the $4,200 mark on Friday, slipping to $4,197.93 per ounce, as traders braced for key inflation data and next week’s pivotal FOMC decision.
The precious metal has drifted away from the October peak of $4,381.32, and this week is likely to end in the red, reflecting a cautious but clear cooling of momentum.
The broader market now eyes the September PCE inflation report, delayed until later today. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of consumer inflation, the release could sharpen expectations around the timing and pace of monetary easing.
At present, the futures market is pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut next week, a surge in confidence driven by weakening labour data.
Labour Market Cracks Deepen
Two major labour prints added fuel to the fire. The ADP employment report showed an unexpected drop of 32,000 jobs in private payrolls.
In addition, the Challenger Job Cuts report recorded 71,000 layoffs in November, pushing the year-to-date total to nearly 1.17 million.
This is the highest cumulative layoff number in over a decade, excluding the pandemic shock, and points towards a softening employment landscape. Such figures often precede a policy pivot, particularly as real wage growth begins to outpace job creation — a sign the Fed may see its work as nearing completion.
Technical Analysis
Gold is holding firm above the $4,190 level, trading at $4,197.93, just below its November peak of $4,381.32.
The uptrend remains structurally intact, with all three key moving averages (5, 10, 30) sloping upward in a bullish formation. This suggests that buyers continue to dominate, even though the pace of the rally has moderated.
The MACD is still in positive territory, with the lines having converged but not yet crossed bearishly. This flattening of momentum reflects consolidation rather than reversal.
Price has spent the past few weeks moving sideways in a tight band between $4,100 and $4,200, building a potential base for a new breakout attempt.
A daily close above $4,220 would likely trigger renewed bullish momentum toward $4,300–$4,350, and a retest of the $4,381.32 high. On the downside, immediate support lies at $4,080, followed by the $3,950–$4,000 zone, which coincides with the 30-day moving average.
Cautious Forecast
Gold is likely to remain range-bound into the FOMC meeting. If the PCE print comes in soft and Fed officials confirm a December cut, bulls may attempt a move back toward $4,250. However, any delay or hawkish pushback could test the lower band near $4,120.
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