Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Spot gold traded as high as $4,497.55, while silver hit a record peak of $69.98.
- Central banks are set to buy 850 tons of gold in 2025, while ETF inflows reached $82 billion.
Gold extended its rally on Tuesday, surging close to the $4,500-per-ounce level as traders continued to add exposure despite the year-end period.
Spot gold traded as high as $4,497.55, while XAUUSD last stood near $4,479.40, up 0.80% on the day. The move reflected firm conviction rather than short-covering, with buyers remaining active even as prices approached record territory.
Silver followed closely, climbing to a record peak of $69.98 and hovering just below the $70 mark. The strength across both metals suggested that traders remained focused on macro and global drivers rather than seasonal profit-taking.
Mitsubishi analysts noted that precious metals reaching record prices so late in the year showed that traders have not treated the festive break as an opportunity to reduce positions.
Rate Cuts and Dollar Weakness Support Bullion
Bullion has posted multiple record highs this year, underpinned by US interest rate cuts and a steadily weaker dollar.
The greenback has fallen nearly 10% in 2025, putting it on track for its worst annual performance in eight years. Many traders expect the dollar’s decline to resume in 2026 as global growth improves and the Federal Reserve eases policy further.
Rate cut expectations have strengthened following recent US inflation and labour data.
Our research desk believes that rising rate cut bets are helping drive demand for precious metals. Analysts at Goldman Sachs see further upside, forecasting gold at $4,900 by December 2026.
Global Risk Adds to Safe-Haven Demand
Safe-haven flows also remained firm as global tension stayed elevated. Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, doubts over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and recent US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers have kept risk sentiment fragile.
These factors continued to support demand for gold and silver as portfolio hedges.
The persistence of these risks has reduced sensitivity to short-term price levels, allowing prices to remain elevated without sharp pullbacks.
Technical Analysis
Gold continues to rally, pushing toward a new record high as the precious metal capitalises on persistent global tensions, a softer dollar, and central bank demand.
The current uptrend has resumed convincingly after a brief consolidation in November.
The price action remains firmly above the 5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages, all sloping upward in a classic bullish formation.
This alignment confirms a strong trend, with short-term momentum reinforcing long-term direction.
The MACD (12,26,9) has crossed back above the signal line, with green histogram bars building steadily. This supports a return of bullish momentum and suggests that the rally may have further room to run.
A break above 4480–4500 could signal a clean breakout into uncharted territory.
Cautious Outlook Near Record Levels
Gold may continue to trade with an upward bias as long as rate cut expectations, central bank buying, and global risks remain in play.
However, proximity to the $4,500 level could invite short-term consolidation. Silver may remain volatile given stretched positioning, with dips likely attracting buyers while real yields stay low and physical supply remains tight.
Learn more about trading Precious Metals on VT Markets here.
