Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- XAUUSD hovers near $4,330, just shy of October’s $4,381 record
- Fed’s Waller backs more cuts, labour market shows signs of cooling
- Traders await delayed CPI data for confirmation of inflation easing
- Global risks rise: Venezuela sanctions tighten, Ukraine war simmers
Gold slipped 0.16% to $4,331.74, extending its shallow pullback from the recent high of $4,381.32, but technicals show the metal still well-supported above its moving averages.
MACD momentum remains positive, though slightly flattened, as the market awaits stronger confirmation of the Fed’s easing path.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller added fuel to gold’s bullish case midweek, voicing support for additional rate cuts, while stressing a measured pace.
His tone echoes recent dovish pivot signals from Chair Powell and other officials, reinforcing market bets that the Fed may deliver two or more cuts in 2026, starting as early as March.
Weak Labour Data Reinforces Dovish Bias
Soft US jobs data underpinned the Fed’s cautious tone. The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high, and November’s job creation failed to offset October’s weakness, painting a picture of a labour market losing momentum.
The figures align with a broader narrative of disinflation without a hard landing, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold.
Focus now shifts to the delayed CPI report, expected later today. A downside surprise in core inflation could add further fuel to rate cut expectations — and potentially trigger another breakout in gold.
Global Risks Remain Elevated
Beyond the Fed, gold’s resilience remains supported by global instability. The Biden administration has reimposed energy sanctions on Venezuela, halting all oil shipments after a military escalation and tanker seizure last week.
In Ukraine, President Putin doubled down on territorial demands, despite renewed U.S. diplomatic efforts. The ongoing war and its impact on NATO relations and energy markets continue to cast a long shadow over risk assets, boosting gold’s role as a global hedge.
Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, currently trading near $4,331.74, just below its recent high of $4,381.32. Despite a slight pullback of -0.16%, the price continues to ride above the short- and medium-term moving averages (5, 10, 30), reflecting ongoing bullish momentum.
The chart structure shows steady higher lows, with the 30-day MA acting as dynamic support since the breakout in early October.
Buyers remain in control, especially as price consolidates in a tight range near resistance.
The MACD histogram has flattened slightly, while the signal lines remain in bullish territory, suggesting a potential pause rather than a reversal.
If price breaks above $4,381, the next leg higher could target $4,500.
On the downside, support lies near $4,100, where the 30-day MA and recent consolidation base align.
Momentum remains in favour of the bulls as long as macroeconomic uncertainty and rate cut bets continue to support safe-haven flows.
Bottom Line
Gold remains in a holding pattern just below all-time highs, buoyed by Fed dovishness, fragile U.S. economic data, and simmering global risks.
If the upcoming CPI report confirms disinflation, traders may look for a fresh breakout above $4,381 as the next leg higher into year-end.
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