Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Spot gold dips to $4,278 but remains near 7-week high
- Weekly gain of 1.8% as Fed reinforces easing outlook
- MACD tilts cautiously bullish as momentum steadies above key moving averages
Gold prices edged lower on Friday but held close to a seven-week high, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue easing policy into next year.
Spot gold dipped 0.3% to $4,278.41, cooling slightly after touching $4,381.32 on Thursday — the highest since late October. U.S. gold futures followed suit, slipping 0.3% to $4,302.10, but bullion remains on track for a solid 1.8% weekly gain.
The Fed’s 25 basis point cut on Wednesday was accompanied by dovish commentary from Chair Jerome Powell, who signalled a data-dependent path forward while noting inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The dot plot only showed one more cut for 2026, but the market continues to price in two.
Technical Analysis
Gold is holding firm just below record highs, trading at $4,278.41 with only a marginal intraday loss of 0.04%. The price action remains constructive, consolidating in a tight range beneath the $4,381.32 peak set in November.
Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30-day) continue to slope upward in bullish alignment, and recent daily closes above $4,270 suggest underlying buying pressure remains intact.
The MACD histogram has flipped back to green, with the signal lines narrowing — a sign of potentially resurgent bullish momentum.
Support sits near $4,200, with deeper protection around $4,050, while resistance is capped at the all-time high.
A decisive breakout above $4,300 could pave the way for a move toward the $4,450–$4,500 zone. For now, the trend remains favourable, with gold appearing to coil for another move higher.
Cautious Forecast
With gold holding firm despite profit-taking, the short-term bias remains bullish. If the Fed maintains its dovish stance and macro data point to a cooling labour market, gold could retest the $4,380–$4,400 zone. However, a strong payroll print may delay that upside push.
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