Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- XAUUSD surged above $4,570, extending its 2025 rally into fresh record territory.
- Fed rate cut expectations and rising global risks continue to underpin spot gold demand.
Spot gold (XAUUSD) climbed sharply on Monday, pushing to fresh all-time highs as investors increased exposure to safe-haven assets. The move builds on gold’s powerful 2025 trend, with prices now up more than 65% year to date.
XAUUSD traded around $4,574 in early Asia, after touching highs near $4,612 earlier in the session. The rally has been supported by a combination of falling real yields, expectations of looser US monetary policy, and elevated geopolitical risk.
While futures markets reflected similar strength, spot gold remains the cleaner gauge of physical and macro-driven demand, particularly as ETF flows and central bank buying continue to favour bullion.
Global Risks Reinforce Safe-Haven Flows
Global tensions remain a key driver behind gold’s upside momentum. Escalating unrest in Iran, where reports suggest over 500 fatalities linked to protests, has raised concerns about broader regional instability.
Tensions intensified further after Tehran warned it could target US military bases if Donald Trump follows through on renewed threats of military action. According to media reports, Washington is considering several response options following recent developments on the ground.
Beyond the Middle East, uncertainty around Ukraine, Venezuela, and Arctic security has added to the global risk premium. In this environment, XAUUSD has continued to attract inflows as investors seek insulation from political shocks and policy unpredictability.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Spot Gold
Expectations for additional US rate cuts have also reinforced the bid in spot gold. A mixed US labour report last week showed slower job growth across construction, retail, and manufacturing, while the unemployment rate edged lower.
Markets are now pricing in at least two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. A lower-rate environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion and pressuring the dollar.
Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, including remarks about the potential for political pressure on the central bank, have further strengthened the view that policy risks remain skewed toward easier conditions over time.
Technical Analysis
Gold continues its steady ascent, pushing toward fresh highs after reclaiming bullish structure above the 30-day MA. The uptrend has remained intact since the breakout from the $3,250 zone in July, with consistently higher lows forming.
Price action shows renewed bullish momentum as candles lean aggressively into the upper band of the short-term moving averages.
MACD confirms bullish strength, with a fresh crossover forming and histogram rising back into positive territory.
Momentum is building again after a short consolidation in December, opening the path for further gains should bulls hold above $4,500.
Pullbacks Likely Bought
XAUUSD remains supported by a powerful mix of macro and technical drivers.
While short-term volatility may increase near record levels, underlying demand linked to geopolitical uncertainty and expected Fed easing continues to favour gold.
As long as spot prices hold above key support levels, any corrective dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than signs of reversal.
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