Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- EUR/USD trades at 1.16325, down 0.16%, after hitting a July peak of 1.18297.
- Commerzbank warns weaker PMIs could drag the euro lower if recovery signals falter.
The euro edged lower on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the latest European purchasing managers’ index surveys, a release seen as critical for gauging the region’s recovery. EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.1631, with caution setting in as analysts warned the data could disappoint.
Our research desk noted that while PMIs have recently outperformed other leading indicators, a weaker print could bring them back in line with signals of slower momentum. Markets had pinned hopes on the surveys to validate a more durable recovery narrative, but sentiment is fragile amid softer industrial output and consumer confidence figures.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has climbed steadily from its February low near 1.0210, peaking at 1.1829 in July before easing into a consolidation phase.
The pair is now trading around 1.1632, holding above the 1.1500 support zone. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) are flattening, showing reduced momentum, while the MACD is close to the zero line, reflecting indecision after the strong rally earlier in the year.
In the near term, resistance sits at 1.1700–1.1830, with a breakout above potentially resuming the broader uptrend.
On the downside, a move below 1.1500 would weaken the outlook and expose 1.1350. For now, EUR/USD appears range-bound, awaiting fresh direction from economic data and central bank policy signals.
Cautious Forecast
A soft PMI print would likely push EUR/USD back toward 1.1500, with potential spillovers into bond and equity markets.
If PMIs surprise to the upside, however, the pair could retest 1.1750, though conviction above 1.1800 may be harder to achieve without broader macro tailwinds.
