Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- The US Dollar Index strengthens as safe-haven demand rises on renewed geopolitical risks.
- The US reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with President Donald Trump stating that Washington would oversee a safe and orderly transition.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extended its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 98.60 during Asian hours on Monday.
The dollar’s advance follows renewed geopolitical uncertainty after reports emerged that the US had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Donald Trump signalled that Washington would supervise a safe and orderly transition.
The news triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment, prompting investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets such as the USD and Japanese yen.
Dollar Awaits ISM PMI
Traders are also monitoring key US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for further clues on the dollar’s near-term trajectory. Any unexpected strength could reinforce the greenback’s gains, while weaker-than-expected figures may provide relief to other currencies.
Technical Analysis
The US Dollar began the week with strong bullish momentum, as investors turn to safe-haven assets during periods of uncertainty.
USDX is currently trading above the 98.00 level and could test the next resistance at 99.00.
A break above 99.00 would open the path towards the 100.00 level.
The MACD histogram is showing bullish bars, indicating buyers are stepping in. However, the signal line remains in negative territory. It is prudent to wait for the signal line to cross the 50 level before taking long positions.
Cautious Outlook as ISM PMI Awaits
Traders should pay close attention to the ISM PMI data, due later today during the New York session. Forecasts suggest a reading of 48.3, slightly above the previous 48.2, which is partly why the dollar has gained in early trading.
Nonetheless, the actual data will dictate market direction. Traders are advised to employ proper risk management and wait for clear signals before executing trades.
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