Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- WTI crude rose to $63.62, while Brent edged up to $67.82 per barrel.
- API reported a 3.82M barrel draw in US crude inventories last week.
- Kurdish oil exports remain suspended as Iraq demands repayment guarantees.
Oil markets continued their upward grind on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising 0.3% to $63.62 and Brent climbing 0.3% to $67.82, marking the second straight day of gains.
The rally comes as a combination of supply-side constraints and geopolitical friction tighten the near-term outlook.
The latest American Petroleum Institute (API) report revealed a 3.82 million barrel drop in US crude stocks last week, adding bullish sentiment to an already supply-constrained market.
Gasoline stocks also fell by over 1 million barrels, even as distillates saw a modest build. The official EIA data is expected to be released later today and will provide firmer direction.
Compounding the bullish tone was news that efforts to resume oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region have stalled. Despite initial optimism, key producers are withholding exports of roughly 230,000 bpd until guarantees on debt repayment are met.
The pipeline to Turkey has been shut since March 2023, and this fresh impasse adds to ongoing global supply fragility.
Additional concerns came from Venezuela, where Chevron confirmed that it will only be able to export half of its 240,000 bpd quota due to new restrictions, limiting the flow of heavy crude into the US market.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil (CL-OIL) is trading at $63.61, down 0.03% on the day, showing continued consolidation after a volatile year. Prices fell sharply to a low of $55.11 in April, before surging to $77.90 in July, only to retrace back into the low-to-mid 60s range.
The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are compressed and flat, suggesting a lack of clear momentum. The MACD histogram is hovering around the zero line, confirming neutral momentum and the absence of a decisive trend. This signals that oil is stuck in a sideways market, waiting for a catalyst.
Immediate support lies around $61.50–62.00, a zone that has held multiple times. A break below could reopen the path toward the $59.00 handle. On the upside, resistance sits at $66.50, followed by the more significant $70.00 level.
Overall, oil is consolidating within a tight range, with traders watching whether macroeconomic cues—such as US inventory data or OPEC+ policy—will drive the next breakout.
Cautious Forecast
Oil prices are likely to remain range-bound between $59–$68 in the near term, supported by supply disruptions but capped by broader macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly around the US Fed’s next interest rate move.
As long as Kurdistan’s exports remain blocked and Venezuelan output is constrained, the downside risk appears limited. However, traders are awaiting confirmation from US government inventory data before committing to any breakout positions.
