{"id":53134,"date":"2026-08-06T23:38:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T23:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/uncategorized\/53134\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T23:38:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T23:38:27","slug":"%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e5%b1%80%e5%9c%a8%e5%88%86%e8%a3%82%e6%8a%95%e7%a5%a8%e4%b8%8b%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e4%b8%8d%e8%ae%8a%ef%bc%8cwarsh-%e6%94%b6%e7%aa%84%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/53134\/","title":{"rendered":"\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u5206\u88c2\u6295\u7968\u4e0b\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0cWarsh \u6536\u7a84\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff1b\u50b5\u606f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4fe1\u8b7d\u53d7\u8cea\u7591"},"content":{"rendered":"

7\u6708\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff09\u6703\u8b70\u628a\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57283.50%\u81f33.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\u5167\u90e8\u5206\u6b67\uff1a\u4e09\u540d\u5b98\u54e1\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u606f25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u4e5d\u540d\u5247\u50be\u5411\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002Warsh\u4ea6\u6536\u7a84\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u4e00\u8cab\u903e300\u5b57\u7684\u8072\u660e\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u6e1b\u81f3\u7d04130\u5b57\uff0c\u6a19\u8a8c\u7740\u504f\u96e2\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff08Powell\uff09\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u4ed6\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u8fc4\u4eca\u672a\u898b\u653f\u7b56\u52d5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u901a\u8139\u627f\u8afe\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u884c\u52d5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u50b5\u4ee4\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u6301\u7e8c\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u57281\u6708\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5167\u90e8\u6aa2\u8a0e\u6216\u6703\u91cd\u65b0\u5be9\u8996\u901a\u8139\u7684\u91cf\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b\u60df2%\u6838\u5fc3\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\uff08core PCE\uff09\u4ecd\u70ba\u5b98\u65b9\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u300c\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u8da8\u6536\u7dca\u300d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u99b3\uff1a10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0a\u53475\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f34.657%\uff0c30\u5e74\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0a\u53479\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f35.193%\u3002\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u6210\u70ba\u722d\u8ad6\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u73873.5%\u4e14CPI\u901a\u81393.5%\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u96b1\u542b\u5be6\u8cea\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u70ba0%\u3002\u91d1\u50f9\u5728\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f84,000\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u7372\u652f\u6301\u5f8c\u6a6b\u884c\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u53cd\u5f48\u81f3\u7d044,200\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u8a0e\u8ad6\u9762\u4ea6\u64f4\u5c55\u81f3M2\u7b49\u8ca8\u5e63\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4fee\u526a\u5e73\u5747\u300d\uff08trimmed averages\uff09\u5728\u5167\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u901a\u8139\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u65b9\u6cd5\u6216\u53ef\u5728\u4e0d\u6539\u8b8a\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u6539\u8b8a\u516c\u5e03\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n

Market Volatility and Derivatives Positioning<\/h3>\n\n

\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c07\u986f\u8457\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u63a1\u7528\u66f4\u7cbe\u7c21\u7684\u65b0\u6e9d\u901a\u98a8\u683c\uff0c\u4ee4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u66f4\u96e3\u5224\u65b7\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\u3002\u81ea\u592e\u884c\u628a\u5b98\u65b9\u8072\u660e\u524a\u6e1b\u81f3\u7d04130\u5b57\u5f8c\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u671b\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u671f\u6b0a\u4e0a\u8cb7\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff09\u6216\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u7a81\u767c\u4e14\u6025\u901f\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u96a8\u7740\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u6500\u5347\u2014\u201410\u5e74\u671f\u8fd1\u671f\u5347\u81f34.657%\uff0c30\u5e74\u671f\u81f35.193%\u2014\u2014\u50b5\u5e02\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u60c5\u7dd2\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u6df1\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u6cbd\u7a7a\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u9577\u4e45\u671f\u50b5\u5238ETF\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u985e\u90e8\u7f72\u53ef\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u8139\u5177\u9ecf\u6027\u3001\u800c\u975e\u62bc\u6ce8\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002<\/p>\n\n

Opportunities in Precious Metals and Hard Assets<\/h3>\n\n

\u5728\u91d1\u50f9\u65bc4,200\u7f8e\u5143\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\u5f98\u5f8a\u3001\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u6301\u5e73\u65bc0%\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u4e0d\u6d3e\u606f\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u672c\u5df2\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9010\u6b65\u7d2f\u7a4d\u9ec3\u91d1\u53ca\u767d\u9280\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08long call\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u5f80\u901a\u8139\u5e74\u4ee3\uff08\u4f8b\u59821970\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff09\u7576\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u8f49\u8ca0\u6642\uff0c\u91d1\u50f9\u66fe\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u5c0d\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n

M2\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u6301\u7e8c\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u4ecd\u5728\u6697\u4e2d\u63a8\u9032\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u900f\u904e\u5546\u54c1\u6389\u671f\uff08commodity swaps\uff09\u53ca\u5be6\u7269\u8cc7\u7522\u76f8\u95dc\u671f\u6b0a\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u53d7\u4fb5\u8755\u3002\u805a\u7126\u6b64\u985e\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u65e5\u76ca\u8cea\u7591\u592e\u884c\u6297\u901a\u8139\u6c7a\u5fc3\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7a7f\u8d8a\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FOMC\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u60df\u5167\u90e8\u5206\u6b67\u52a0\u5287\uff0cWarsh\u7e2e\u77ed\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u5f15\u7206\u6ce2\u52d5\uff1b\u9577\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u6025\u5347\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u7591\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u3002\u90e8\u7f72\u6307\u6578\u8de8\u5f0f\u3001\u6cbd\u9577\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u589e\u6301\u91d1\u9280\u671f\u6b0a\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50631,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t