{"id":52973,"date":"2026-08-04T03:08:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T03:08:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/uncategorized\/52973\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T03:08:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T03:08:23","slug":"holmes%e5%b0%87%e9%bb%83%e9%87%91%e3%80%8c%e6%81%90%e6%87%bc%e8%88%87%e6%84%9b%e3%80%8d%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%a6%96%e7%82%ba%e5%82%b5%e5%8b%99%e3%80%81%e6%97%a5%e5%9c%93%e5%a5%97%e6%81%af%e4%ba%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/52973\/","title":{"rendered":"Holmes\u5c07\u9ec3\u91d1\u300c\u6050\u61fc\u8207\u611b\u300d\u4ea4\u6613\u8996\u70ba\u50b5\u52d9\u3001\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u62c6\u5009\u53caAI\u91d1\u5c6c\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8a0a\u865f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Frank E. Holmes \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\u53cd\u6620\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u300c\u6050\u61fc\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\uff08fear trade\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u4e9e\u6d32\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u300c\u611b\u60c5\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\uff08love trade\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d04 60% \u7684\u5168\u7403\u8cb7\u76e4\u8207\u4e9e\u6d32\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7684\u300c\u53ef\u651c\u5f0f\u5bb6\u65cf\u8ca1\u5bcc\u300d\u914d\u7f6e\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u91d1\u50f9\u7684\u652f\u6301\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u9023\u7d50\u5230\u903e 350 \u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u52d9\u8207\u300c\u985e\u73fe\u4ee3\u8ca8\u5e63\u7406\u8ad6\uff08MMT\uff09\u300d\u5f0f\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u53ca\u4e2d\u570b\u300c\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u300d\u7684\u5ef6\u4f38\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u53ca\u91d1\u78da\u570b\u5bb6\uff08BRICS\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002Holmes \u5f15\u8ff0\u4e00\u9805\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u6307\u7d04 75% \u7684\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u900f\u904e\u300c\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u300d\u501f\u8cb8\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u5b58\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u806f\u7e6b\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u63d0\u5230\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u7d04 30 \u5e74\u5f8c\u7531\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u8f49\u5411\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5f62\u5bb9\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff09\u5e73\u5009\uff08unwind\uff09\u53ef\u5f15\u767c\u8de8\u8cc7\u7522\u88ab\u8feb\u6cbd\u552e\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u65e5\u672c\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u50b5\u52d9\u7531\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\uff08BoJ\uff09\u5728\u570b\u5167\u6301\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Holmes \u6307\u51fa\uff0cAI \u8cc7\u672c\u958b\u652f\uff08capex\uff09\u662f\u5de5\u696d\u91d1\u5c6c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u63d0\u53ca Meta \u8a08\u5283\u5728\u57c3\u723e\u5e15\u7d22\uff08El Paso\uff09\u8208\u5efa 140 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u9700\u7d04 5 \u842c\u5678\u9285\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u8c9d\u840a\u5fb7\uff08BlackRock\uff09\u5728\u4e3b\u6b0a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u63a8\u52d5\u7d04 100 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 AI \u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u767d\u9280\u5728\u52a0\u6536\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\uff08margin\uff09\u524d\uff0c\u66fe\u8f03\u8da8\u52e2\u9ad8\u51fa\u7d04 6 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff1b\u800c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5247\u7531\u7d04\u9ad8\u51fa 3 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff0c\u8f49\u70ba\u7d04\u4f4e\u65bc\u8da8\u52e2 1.6 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff1b\u4ed6\u4f30\u8a08\u672a\u4f86 60 \u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u91d1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u6a5f\u7387\u7d04 85%\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6578\u64da\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5efa\u8b70 10% \u9ec3\u91d1\u53ca\u767d\u9280\u914d\u7f6e\uff1b\u6309\u5e02\u503c\u8a08\u50f9\uff08mark-to-market\uff09\u60c5\u666f\u63a8\u7b97\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f8 40,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u8ca8\u8239\u904b\u8f09\u7d04 80% \u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\uff1bTSA \u5ba2\u6d41\u91cf\u7531 2020 \u5e74\u6bcf\u65e5\u7d04 85,000 \u4eba\u5347\u81f3\u7d04 300 \u842c\u4eba\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u570b\u9632\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u8207 AI \u7684\u958b\u652f\u4f30\u7b97\u7d04 2.5 \u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Strategic Positioning For Gold, Silver, And Derivatives<\/h3>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u61c9\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u91d1\u9280\u986f\u8457\u4e0a\u884c\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u5c07\u8fd1\u671f\u6a6b\u884c\u8996\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u5438\u7d0d\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u91cf\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u91d1\u50f9\u8dcc\u7a7f\u5176\u7d71\u8a08\u8da8\u52e2\u7dda\u6642\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 60 \u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba 85%\u3002\u6b64\u89c0\u9ede\u4ea6\u7372\u5be6\u7269\u9700\u6c42\u5f37\u529b\u652f\u6301\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u592e\u884c\u6bcf\u5e74\u8cfc\u5165\u903e 1,000 \u5678\u9ec3\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u5206\u6563\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u5be9\u614e\u7ba1\u7406\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u6301\u7e8c\u5e73\u5009\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u7531\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6216\u88ab\u8feb\u8b8a\u73fe\u76c8\u5229\u8cc7\u7522\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u9ec3\u91d1\uff09\u4ee5\u61c9\u4ed8\u8ffd\u7e73\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\uff08margin call\uff09\u3002\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u61c9\u63a1\u7528\u8cb7\u5165\u9ec3\u91d1\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08long call\uff09\u800c\u975e\u9ad8\u69d3\u687f\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u7531\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u56de\u8abf\u4e2d\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u8feb\u6b62\u8755\u51fa\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Opportunities In Industrial Metals And Navigating The Debt Cycle<\/h3>\n<p>\u9664\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ea6\u770b\u5230\u9285\u7b49\u5de5\u696d\u5546\u54c1\u5c55\u73fe\u986f\u8457\u5f37\u52e2\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u57fa\u5efa\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u9f90\u5927\u958b\u652f\u3002\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u982d\u6b63\u6295\u5165\u6578\u767e\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5efa\u8a2d\u5927\u578b AI \u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u8a2d\u65bd\u70ba\u6eff\u8db3\u96fb\u529b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u7528\u9285\u91cf\u53ef\u9ad8\u9054 5 \u842c\u5678\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u914d\u7f6e\u9285\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff09\u6216\u725b\u5e02\u8a8d\u8cfc\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff09\u7684\u5009\u4f4d\u898f\u6a21\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u53ef\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u628a\u63e1\u9019\u500b\u9577\u671f\u5de5\u696d\u8d85\u7d1a\u5468\u671f\uff08supercycle\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u52d9\u8d85\u904e 315 \u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u51fa\u73fe\u56b4\u91cd\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u52e2\u5fc5\u518d\u5ea6\u8f49\u5411\u8ca8\u5e63\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u300c\u5370\u9214\u300d\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u9010\u6b65\u5438\u7d0d\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u70ba 60 \u81f3 90 \u5929\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u53ca\u767d\u9280\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ee5\u9818\u5148\u9019\u6ce2\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002\u900f\u904e\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u5df2\u754c\u5b9a\uff08defined-risk\uff09\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u5728\u5229\u7528\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4ea6\u4fdd\u8b77\u8cc7\u672c\u514d\u53d7\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u566a\u97f3\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/trade-now\/\">\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9ec3\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\u5206\u5316\uff1a\u897f\u65b9\u300c\u6050\u61fc\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u4e2d\u6771\u300c\u611b\u60c5\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\u6490\u5e02\uff1b\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u52d9\u8207\u985eMMT\u63a8\u5347\u907f\u96aa\u3002\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u5e73\u5009\u6216\u89f8\u767c\u65ac\u5009\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4f3060\u65e5\u91d1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u6a5f\u738785%\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50812,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" 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