{"id":52568,"date":"2026-07-29T02:37:52","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T02:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/uncategorized\/52568\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T02:37:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T02:37:52","slug":"%e7%b4%90%e7%b4%84%e6%a2%85%e9%9a%86%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e3%80%8c%e8%b6%85%e6%a0%b8%e5%bf%83%e3%80%8d%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e4%bb%8d%e7%84%b6%e9%bb%8f%e6%80%a7%ef%bc%8c%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/52568\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d10\u7d04\u6885\u9686\u9280\u884c\u8b66\u544a\u300c\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u300d\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u9ecf\u6027\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c0f\u7d44\u6aa2\u8996\u76f8\u95dc\u6307\u6a19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7d10\u7d04\u6885\u9686\u9280\u884c\uff08BNY\uff09\u7684 John Velis \u53ca David Tam \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u300d\uff08supercore\uff09\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u652f\u6301\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7dca\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5011\u4ecd\u50be\u5411 7 \u6708\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002\u81ea 2023 \u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u670d\u52d9\u901a\u8139\uff08core services inflation ex shelter\uff09\u4e00\u76f4\u8f03\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u589e\u901f\u9ad8\u8fd1 1 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u5169\u4eba\u5f62\u5bb9\u5176\u8d70\u52e2\u5c6c\u300c\u6301\u7e8c\u7a69\u5b9a\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u52a0\u901f\u4e0a\u884c\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u904b\u8f38\u670d\u52d9\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6a5f\u7968\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u3001\u8207\u4fdd\u96aa\u4fdd\u8cbb\u4e0a\u5347\u53ca\u300a\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u91ab\u6539\u300b\uff08Obamacare\uff09\u88dc\u8cbc\u524a\u6e1b\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u662f\u9020\u6210\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f86\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u904b\u8f38\u53ca\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u5408\u8a08\u5728\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139 3.0% \u7684\u5347\u5e45\u4e2d\u8ca2\u737b 0.7%\uff0c\u4e26\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u7bc4\u7587\u5c0d\u66f4\u7dca\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e26\u4e0d\u7279\u5225\u654f\u611f\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d Kevin Warsh \u65d7\u4e0b\u7684\u300c\u901a\u8139\u6846\u67b6\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c0f\u7d44\u300d\uff08Inflation Frameworks Task Force\uff09\u5c07\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u901a\u8139\u9a45\u52d5\u56e0\u7d20\u53ca\u300c\u7b2c\u4e00\u539f\u7406\u300d\uff08first principles\uff09\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u901a\u8139\uff08trimmed mean inflation\uff09\u7b49\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6a19\u53d6\u4ee3\u4ee5\u7e3d\u9ad4 PCE \u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u6309\u5e74\uff08core y\/y PCE\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u671f\u540c\u6a23\u6eef\u5f8c\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982 2008 \u5e74\u5e95\u7e3d\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u6025\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u9054\u62c9\u65af\u806f\u5132\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u76f4\u81f3 2009 \u5e74\u4e2d\u624d\u51fa\u73fe\u76f8\u82e5\u8dcc\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3>Positioning for a Fed Hold in the Face of Persistent Supercore Inflation<\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4f5c\u70ba\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u5728\u5373\u5c07\u8209\u884c\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u90e8\u7f72\u300c\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u4ecd\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u8981\u8a71\u984c\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u76ee\u524d\u53cd\u6620\u66ab\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u8207\u6211\u5011\u7684\u77ed\u7dda\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u90e8\u5206\u504f\u9df9\u8a00\u8ad6\u6216\u5f15\u767c\u77ed\u66ab\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u592e\u884c\u66ab\u6642\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u53cd\u5c0d\u66ab\u505c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8ad6\u9ede\u5728\u65bc\u300c\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u300d\u901a\u8139\u2014\u2014\u6263\u9664\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u670d\u52d9\u2014\u2014\u73fe\u6642\u8f03\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7d04 2.2% \u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u9ad8\u8fd1 1 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u80a1\u71b1\u5ea6\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7531\u884c\u696d\u7279\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u6240\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6a5f\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u53ca\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u4fdd\u8cbb\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u9805\u76ee\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u4e26\u4e0d\u8fc5\u901f\u3002\u70ba\u628a\u63e1\u76f8\u95dc\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u904b\u7528\u901a\u8139\u6389\u671f\uff08inflation swaps\uff09\u671f\u6b0a\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u9019\u4e9b\u9811\u56fa\u7d44\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u4ee4\u4e2d\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3>Monetary Policy Framework Shifts and Trading Strategies<\/h3>\n\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u4ea6\u5fc5\u9808\u7559\u610f\u4e3b\u5e2d Kevin Warsh \u65b0\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u300c\u901a\u8139\u6846\u67b6\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c0f\u7d44\u300d\uff0c\u5176\u6b63\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5982\u4f55\u8861\u91cf\u50f9\u683c\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002Warsh \u5c0d\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u901a\u8139\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u56e0\u8a72\u6307\u6a19\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u671f\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u73fe\u6eef\u5f8c\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5f8c\uff0c\u9054\u62c9\u65af\u806f\u5132\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c PCE \u8f03\u7e3d\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u9072\u8fd1\u4e5d\u500b\u6708\u624d\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e0b\u884c\u8da8\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u82e5\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8f49\u5411\u4ee5\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u6846\u67b6\u4f5c\u70ba\u653f\u7b56\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5e74\u5e95\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6216\u6703\u9806\u5ef6\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5efa\u7acb\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u6241\u5e73\u300d\uff08bear flattener\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u300c\u9ad8\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher-for-longer\uff09\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\u3002\u6b64\u985e\u5009\u4f4d\u6709\u52a9\u4fdd\u8b77\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u61c9\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u7e3d\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u770b\u4f3c\u964d\u6eab\u6642\uff0c\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u9df9\u53d6\u5411\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/trade-now\/\">\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u62167\u6708\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u60df\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u7e8c\u9ad8\uff0c\u904b\u8f38\u53ca\u91ab\u4fdd\u63a8\u53473%\u4e2d\u8ca2\u737b0.7%\u3002Warsh\u64ec\u8f49\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u6216\u5f8c\u79fb\uff1b\u5b9c\u7528\u901a\u8139\u6389\u671f\u671f\u6b0a\u5c0d\u6c96\u517c\u4f48\u5c40\u718a\u5e02\u6241\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50627,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta 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