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\u6b50\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u65bc1.1370\u9644\u8fd1\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u5fb7\u570bIFO\u5546\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\u9810\u6e2c\u70ba86.1\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u524d\u503c85.6\uff1b\u6b50\u5143\u5340HICP\u901a\u8139\u6599\u6309\u5e742.9%\uff0c\u524d\u503c2.8%\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u6599\u70ba2.4%\u3002\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08GBP\/USD\uff09\u5831\u7d041.3325\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u975c\u5f85BoE\u8b70\u606f\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff09\u65bc3.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u6295\u7968\u7d50\u679c\u70ba7\u7968\u8d0a\u6210\u30012\u7968\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u53ca\u66f4\u65b0\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u65e5\u5713\uff08USD\/JPY\uff09\u65bc163.80\u9644\u8fd1\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7b49\u5f85BoJ\u8b70\u606f\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u63011.00%\uff1b\u6771\u4eacCPI\uff08\u6487\u9664\u751f\u9bae\u98df\u54c1\uff09\u6599\u6309\u5e741.8%\uff0c\u524d\u503c1.6%\uff1b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u6599\u70ba2.5%\uff1b\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u589e\u9577\u6599\u70ba2.8%\uff0c\u524d\u503c5.3%\u3002\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08AUD\/USD\uff09\u65bc0.6980\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u6708\u5ea6CPI\u9810\u6e2c\u6309\u67080.3%\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u70ba-0.7%\uff1b\u6309\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u70ba4.0%\uff0c\u7d93\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\uff08trimmed mean\uff09\u6309\u5e743.6%\uff0c\u57fa\u790e\u6708\u5ea6\u6307\u6a19\u6599\u70ba0.4%\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u9810\u6e2c49.9\uff0c\u524d\u503c50.3\uff0c\u975e\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u6599\u70ba50.0\uff0c\u524d\u503c50.2\u3002WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u65bc\u6bcf\u687689.20\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u7d04\u58314,065\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u592e\u884c\u6c7a\u7b56\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n\n

2026\u5e74\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6700\u95dc\u9375\u4ea4\u6613\u5468\u5373\u5c07\u5c55\u958b\uff0c\u5c0d\u671f\u6b0a\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0cFed\u3001BoE\u53caBoJ\u5c07\u76f8\u7e7c\u516c\u5e03\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u591a\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u592e\u884c\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5468\u5bc6\u96c6\u8b70\u606f\uff0cG10\u8ca8\u5e63\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u986f\u8457\u62bd\u5347\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u60c5\u6cc1\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u6578\u65e5\u5347\u5e45\u53ef\u8d85\u904e15%\u3002\u57287\u670829\u65e5\u592e\u884c\u516c\u544a\u9678\u7e8c\u63ed\u76c5\u524d\uff0c\u61c9\u6e96\u5099\u6355\u6349\u671f\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u64f4\u5f35\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5c24\u4ee5EUR\/USD\u53caUSD\/JPY\u70ba\u91cd\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671fFed\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\u5c07\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u672c\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u6c92\u6709\u66f4\u65b0\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08dot plot\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a08\u8072\u660e\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u5e45\u5c07\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e00\u822c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u90e8\u7f72\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff09\u9577\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff09\u6709\u52a9\u5728\u7a81\u767c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e2d\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u82e5\u5468\u56db\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u8139\u62162.3%\u7684GDP\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u504f\u96e2\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u671b\u6355\u6349\u6025\u901f\u55ae\u908a\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

BoE\u5468\u56db\u9810\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u70ba\u671f\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u8ce3\u65b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u8f03\u4f73\u4f48\u5c40\u3002\u53ef\u9810\u671f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u524d\u6b21\u4ee57\u6bd42\u4f5c\u51fa\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u5f15\u767c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u5728\u884c\u9577Andrew Bailey\u767c\u8a00\u524d\uff0c\u65bcGBP\/USD\u90e8\u7f72\u9435\u5140\u9df9\uff08iron condor\uff09\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u64e0\u58d3\u300d\uff08volatility crush\uff09\u535a\u53d6\u6642\u9593\u503c\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u5728163.80\u9644\u8fd1\u5c6c\u654f\u611f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5c0d\u5468\u4e94BoJ\u6c7a\u8b70\u53ca\u6771\u4eacCPI\u6578\u64da\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u3002\u82e5BoJ\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u73871.00%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c\u96f6\u552e\u589e\u9577\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u9810\u6e2c\u76842.8%\uff0c\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\uff08yen carry trade\uff09\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u7a81\u7136\u5e73\u5009\u3002\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165USD\/JPY\u50f9\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff09\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u53ef\u5728\u6025\u632b\u53cd\u8f49\u6642\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0b\u884c\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n\n

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\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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