{"id":51412,"date":"2026-07-07T00:59:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T00:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/uncategorized\/51412\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T00:59:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T00:59:51","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e8%98%ad%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e6%96%b0%e8%a5%bf%e8%98%ad%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af25%e5%80%8b%e5%9f%ba%e9%bb%9e%e3%80%80%e7%b4%90%e5%85%83%e8%b5%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/51412\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u862d\u5408\u4f5c\u9280\u884c\u9810\u671f\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3000\u7d10\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3000\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rabobank \u9810\u671f\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBNZ\uff09\u5c07\u65bc 7 \u6708 8 \u65e5\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u52a0\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5c07\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3 2.5%\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5f6d\u535a\u8abf\u67e5\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u60df\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c\u4ecd\u898b\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u300c\u5f71\u5b50\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u300d\u91cb\u51fa\u8a0a\u865f\u597d\u6de1\u4e0d\u4e00\uff0c\u96a8\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u6709\u6240\u7de9\u548c\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u672c\u5730\u5fa9\u7526\u57fa\u8abf\u4ecd\u504f\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u4ea6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d10\u5143\u8fd1\u671f\u8d70\u52e2\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u5728 G10 \u8ca8\u5e63\u4e00\u65e5\u8868\u73fe\u6392\u540d\u4e2d\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u50c5\u512a\u65bc\u65e5\u5713\uff08JPY\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u5e74\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u95dc\u9589\u5f8c\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e00\u5ea6\u6210\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u800c Breman \u884c\u9577\u65bc 5 \u6708\u8b70\u606f\u5f8c\u66fe\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u70ba\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5e74\u5167\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u81ea 6 \u6708 17 \u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7c3d\u7f72\u8ad2\u89e3\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u5f8c\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u6230\u4e8b\u7206\u767c\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4ecd\u9810\u671f\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u8fd1\u56db\u6b21\u3001\u6bcf\u6b21 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6216\u7531\u73fe\u6642 2.25% \u5347\u81f3\u7d04 3.18%\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u8cbc\u8fd1\u5f71\u5b50\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u63d0\u51fa\u7684 3%\u20133.25% \u5340\u9593\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64 Rabobank \u8a8d\u70ba\u7d10\u5143\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff0cNZD\/USD \u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u66f4\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d RBNZ \u4efb\u4f55\u63aa\u8fad\u8f49\u5411\u76f8\u7576\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n

Limited Upside for NZD and Downside Risk<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u660e\u65e5\u52a0\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u8a72\u56e0\u7d20\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\u65bc\u532f\u50f9\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6578\u6389\u671f\uff08OIS\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u81f3 2027 \u5e74\u4e2d\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7d42\u7aef\u6c34\u5e73\u7d04 3.20%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u62bc\u6ce8 RBNZ \u7684\u9df9\u6d3e\u8def\u5f91\u3002\u9019\u4ee4\u9df9\u6d3e\u610f\u5916\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u76f8\u7576\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e26\u610f\u5473\u7d10\u5143\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u7559\u610f\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u8de1\u8c61\u6216\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u6536\u7dca\u8def\u5f91\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u9072\u7591\uff0c\u4ee4\u8ca8\u5e63\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u58d3\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u5b63\u5ea6 CPI \u6309\u5b63\u5347 0.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff1b\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f ANZ \u5546\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8abf\u67e5\u8dcc\u7a7f 50 \u9ede\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u56e0\u7d20\u914d\u5408\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7dad\u6301\u904e\u5ea6\u9df9\u6d3e\u7acb\u5834\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

Trading Strategies and Historical Parallels<\/h3>\n

\u9451\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u9810\u671f\u76f8\u7576\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u8cb7\u5165 NZD\/USD \u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff09\u5c6c\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u53ef\u6355\u6349\u4e00\u65e6 RBNZ \u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u672a\u80fd\u6eff\u8db3\u5e02\u5834\u9ad8\u9810\u671f\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u532f\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u986f\u793a\u592e\u884c\u6de1\u5316\u9df9\u6d3e\u63aa\u8fad\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u5747\u53ef\u80fd\u8f15\u6613\u89f8\u767c\u62cb\u552e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u532f\u50f9\u4ecd\u5c07\u53d7\u5236\u3001\u7dad\u6301\u5340\u9593\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8ce3\u51fa\u6ce2\u5e45\u3002Iron condor\uff08\u9435\u5140\u9df9\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728 NZD\/USD \u7dad\u6301\u65bc\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u5340\u9593\u5167\u6642\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u8207\u300c\u4e0a\u884c\u6709\u9650\u3001\u4e0b\u884c\u6216\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7de9\u885d\u300d\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u82e5 RBNZ \u5982\u671f\u52a0\u606f\u4f46\u672a\u627f\u8afe\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6536\u7dca\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u8a72\u7b56\u7565\u76f8\u5c0d\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u4ea6\u806f\u60f3\u5230 2014\u20132015 \u5e74\u671f\u9593\uff0cRBNZ \u66fe\u5c55\u958b\u9032\u53d6\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4f46\u5176\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u9006\u8f49\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d10\u5143\u986f\u8457\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u73fe\u5be6\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u63aa\u8fad\u8f49\u5411\u90fd\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u76f8\u7576\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u8a72\u6b77\u53f2\u5148\u4f8b\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6301\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u6642\u504f\u5be9\u614e\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RBNZ\u6216\u5982\u671f\u52a025\u9ede\u5b50\u81f32.5\u5398\uff0c\u60dfOIS\u5df2\u76e1\u53cd\u6620\u9df9\u6d3e\u8def\u5f91\uff1b\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u3001CPI\u504f\u8edf\u53ca\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u7d10\u5143\u4e0a\u884c\u6709\u9650\u504f\u4e0b\u884c\uff0cNZD\/USD\u6599\u66f4\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":51205,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51412"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51412\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}